Liberty vs. Fever prediction: Caitlin Clark projected to score 23 points in Tuesday's WNBA matchup [8/11/2026]
Get New York Liberty vs Indiana Fever predictions for WNBA Tuesday.
WNBA action continues on Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET as the New York Liberty take on the Indiana Fever at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Dimers' proven WNBA model gives the Fever a slight edge with a 50.1% win probability over the Liberty.
The Fever, who have the likes of Kelsey Mitchell, Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston, will face off against the Liberty, featuring Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.
Clark, the sweet-shooting guard for the Fever, is expected to shine with a projected 23 points and 3 threes.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's Liberty vs. Fever matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Fever prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Fever a 50.1% chance of beating the Liberty.
According to our model, the Liberty (+2.5) have a 58.7% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 192.5 points has a 60.0% chance of staying under,.
Liberty vs. Fever odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Liberty +2.5 (+100) / Fever -2.5 (-104)
- Moneyline: Liberty +127, Fever -133
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Fever picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Liberty +2.5 @ +100 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Liberty @ +127 via Polymarket
- Total: Under 192.5 @ -108 via Polymarket
According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Liberty +2.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Fever player props
Betting on Liberty vs. Fever WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 19 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while Kelsey Mitchell is projected to have 27 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists for the Fever.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Kelsey Mitchell striking first with a 15.5% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 19 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 41 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 15 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 32 |
| Jonquel Jones | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 36 |
| Pauline Astier | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| Rebecca Allen | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 |
Fever prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fever:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Mitchell | 27 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 40 |
| Caitlin Clark | 23 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 51 |
| Aliyah Boston | 18 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 42 |
| S. Cunningham | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 |
| Makayla Timpson | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23 |
Liberty vs. Fever game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's matchup between the Fever and Liberty at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Indiana Fever
- Date: Tuesday, August 11, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Conclusion
We predict the Fever, with a 50.1% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
