Liberty vs. Fever prediction: Caitlin Clark projected to score 23 points in Tuesday's WNBA matchup [8/11/2026]

WNBA action continues on Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET as the New York Liberty take on the Indiana Fever at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Dimers' proven WNBA model gives the Fever a slight edge with a 50.2% win probability over the Liberty.

The Fever, who have the likes of Kelsey Mitchell, Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston, are set to take on the Liberty, who feature Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.

Clark, the Fever's No. 1 pick in the 2024 WNBA draft, is expected to shine with a projected 23 points and 3 threes.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's Liberty vs. Fever matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Liberty vs. Fever prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's WNBA game between the Liberty and Fever, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Fever a 50.2% chance of beating the Liberty.

According to our model, the Liberty (+3.5) have a 60.5% chance of covering the spread, while the 192-point over/under has a 61.2% chance of staying under,.

Liberty vs. Fever odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Liberty +3.5 (-108) / Fever -3.5 (+104)
• Moneyline: Liberty +133, Fever -138

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Liberty vs. Fever picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Liberty +3.5 @ -108 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Liberty @ +133 via Polymarket
• Total: Under 192 @ -105 via DraftKings

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 192 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Liberty vs. Fever player props

WNBA player props are an exciting way to wager on Tuesday's Liberty vs. Fever matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 19 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while Kelsey Mitchell is projected to have 27 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists for the Fever.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Kelsey Mitchell striking first with a 15.5% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Liberty prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	19	8	3	1	41
Sabrina Ionescu	15	4	5	2	32
Jonquel Jones	13	9	5	2	36
Pauline Astier	9	3	3	1	20
Rebecca Allen	8	3	1	2	18

Fever prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fever:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kelsey Mitchell	27	2	3	3	40
Caitlin Clark	23	5	10	3	51
Aliyah Boston	18	10	4	1	42
S. Cunningham	9	3	2	2	18
Makayla Timpson	7	7	1	0	23

Liberty vs. Fever game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's matchup between the Fever and Liberty at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: New York Liberty vs. Indiana Fever
• Date: Tuesday, August 11, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse

Conclusion

We predict the Fever, with a 50.2% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.