Sparks vs. Liberty prediction: New York favored to win Thursday's WNBA game [8/13/2026]

WNBA action continues on Thursday at 8:00 PM ET as the Los Angeles Sparks take on the favored New York Liberty at Barclays Center.

Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner in this Sparks vs. Liberty prediction.

The Liberty, powered by Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones, are set to take on the Sparks, whose lineup includes Nneka Ogwumike, Dearica Hamby and Rae Burrell.

This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Sparks vs. Liberty prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's WNBA matchup between the Sparks and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Liberty a 77.1% chance of defeating the Sparks.

According to our model, the Sparks (+8.5) have a 53.7% chance of covering the spread, while the 187.5-point over/under has a 56.8% chance of staying under,.

Sparks vs. Liberty odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Sparks +8.5 (-109) / Liberty -8.5 (+104)
• Moneyline: Sparks +317, Liberty -335

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sparks vs. Liberty picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Sparks +8.5 @ -109 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Liberty @ -335 via Polymarket
• Total: Under 187.5 @ -108 via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 187.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sparks vs. Liberty player props

WNBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on the Los Angeles vs. New York game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.

Nneka Ogwumike is expected to lead the Sparks with 16 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 19 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists for the Liberty.

For early game action, the data identifies Dearica Hamby as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sparks prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Sparks are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Nneka Ogwumike	16	8	3	2	35
Dearica Hamby	15	7	2	0	33
Rae Burrell	14	3	3	2	27
Ariel Atkins	11	4	4	2	27
Erica Wheeler	10	3	5	2	25

Liberty prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	19	8	3	1	40
Sabrina Ionescu	15	4	5	2	32
Jonquel Jones	14	9	3	2	35
Marine Johannes	9	2	2	2	18
Pauline Astier	9	2	3	1	19

Sparks vs. Liberty game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's game between the Liberty and Sparks at Barclays Center is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Los Angeles Sparks vs. New York Liberty
• Date: Thursday, August 13, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Barclays Center

Conclusion

We predict the Liberty, with a 77.1% win probability, will likely beat the Sparks in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.