Aces vs. Mystics prediction: Why Las Vegas is favored to win Wednesday's WNBA matchup [7/22/2026]
Get Las Vegas Aces vs Washington Mystics predictions for WNBA Wednesday.
The Washington Mystics and Las Vegas Aces will meet in the WNBA at CareFirst Arena on Wednesday, starting at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of the Aces vs. Mystics game.
The Mystics, with stars such as Shakira Austin, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen, are set to take on the Aces, featuring A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Aces vs. Mystics prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Aces a 69.6% chance of beating the Mystics.
According to our model, the Mystics (+5.5) have a 52.7% chance of covering the spread, while the 164-point over/under has a 57.1% chance of going over,.
Aces vs. Mystics odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Aces | Mystics |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -5.5 (-115) | +5.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | -200 | +200 |
| Total | o164 (-110) | u164 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Aces vs. Mystics picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mystics +5.5 | fanatics-102 |
| Moneyline | Aces | -200 |
| Total | Over 164 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 164 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Aces vs. Mystics player props
WNBA prop bets are a common way to wager on Wednesday's Aces vs. Mystics matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at CareFirst Arena.
A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 24 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Shakira Austin is projected to have 18 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists for the Mystics.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight A'ja Wilson as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Aces prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 24 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 50 |
| Jackie Young | 16 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 35 |
| Chelsea Gray | 11 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 31 |
| NaLyssa Smith | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 |
| Jewell Loyd | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
Mystics prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mystics:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakira Austin | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 41 |
| Sonia Citron | 15 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| Kiki Iriafen | 15 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 33 |
| M. Onyenwere | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| Lauren Betts | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 19 |
Aces vs. Mystics game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's matchup between the Mystics and Aces at CareFirst Arena is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics
- Date: Wednesday, July 22, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: CareFirst Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with a 69.6% win probability, will likely beat the Mystics in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
