Aces vs. Fire prediction: Why Las Vegas is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [7/9/2026]

The Portland Fire and Las Vegas Aces are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at Moda Center on Thursday, starting at 10:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Aces as the most likely winner of the Aces vs. Fire game.

The Fire, with the likes of Carla Leite, Megan Gustafson and Sarah Barker, are set to take on the Aces, whose lineup includes A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Aces vs. Fire prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's WNBA matchup between the Aces and Fire, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Aces a 77.3% chance of defeating the Fire.

According to our model, the Fire (+9.5) have a 56.8% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 175.5 points has a 61.1% chance of staying under,.

Aces vs. Fire odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Aces	Fire
Spread	-9.5 (-114)	+9.5 (+100)
Moneyline	-500	+400
Total	o175.5 (-108)	u175.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Aces vs. Fire picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Fire +9.5	+100
Moneyline	Fire	hard_rock+400
Total	Under 175.5	-110

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 175.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Aces vs. Fire player props

Looking for Aces vs. Fire WNBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Moda Center.

A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 28 points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists, while Carla Leite is projected to have 14 points, 2 rebounds and 4 assists for the Fire.

For early game action, the data identifies A'ja Wilson as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Aces prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
A'ja Wilson	28	9	4	1	55
Jackie Young	18	5	6	2	38
Chelsea Gray	12	4	7	2	33
Jewell Loyd	10	3	1	2	21
NaLyssa Smith	10	5	1	0	21

Fire prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fire:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Carla Leite	14	2	4	1	27
Megan Gustafson	12	4	1	2	22
Sarah Barker	10	4	2	1	22
B. Carleton	9	4	2	2	21
Emily Engstler	7	5	2	1	22

Aces vs. Fire game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's matchup between the Fire and Aces at Moda Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Portland Fire
• Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Moda Center

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with a 77.3% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.