Xiaodi You vs. Alina Charaeva prediction, odds, picks for WTA Sao Paulo 2026

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Monday's You-Charaeva women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Charaeva a 64% chance of defeating You at the WTA Sao Paulo tournament. Additionally, Charaeva has a 60% chance of winning the first set, while the over 20.5 games has a 54% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Alina Charaeva -219, Xiaodi You +186
• First Set: You +162, Charaeva -200

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: You @ +186 via DraftKings
• First Set: Charaeva @ -120 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 20.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The WTA Sao Paulo match between Xiaodi You and Alina Charaeva is scheduled to commence on Monday at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Xiaodi You vs. Alina Charaeva
• Date: Monday, September 14, 2026
• Approx. Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Tournament: WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women's, Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Alina Charaeva, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat Xiaodi You at the WTA Sao Paulo tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.