Xiaodi You vs. Alina Charaeva prediction, odds, picks for WTA Sao Paulo 2026

Xiaodi You will face Alina Charaeva in the round of 32 at the WTA Sao Paulo event on Tuesday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Alina Charaeva as the most likely winner in this You vs. Charaeva prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's match, including best bets and picks.

You vs. Charaeva prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Tuesday's You-Charaeva women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Charaeva a 67% chance of winning against You at the WTA Sao Paulo tournament. Additionally, Charaeva has a 63% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Charaeva (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 20.5 games has a 52% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Alina Charaeva -250, Xiaodi You +220
• First Set: You +162, Charaeva -200

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: You @ +220 via DraftKings
• First Set: Charaeva @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Xiaodi You to win.

Although You is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The WTA Sao Paulo match between Xiaodi You and Alina Charaeva is scheduled to begin on Tuesday at 11:00 AM ET.

• Who: Xiaodi You vs. Alina Charaeva
• Date: Tuesday, September 15, 2026
• Approx. Time: 11:00 AM ET/8:00AM PT
• Tournament: WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women's, Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Alina Charaeva, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat Xiaodi You at the WTA Sao Paulo tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.