Novak Djokovic vs. Alex de Minaur prediction, odds, picks for ATP China Open 2026

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Tuesday's Djokovic-de Minaur men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Djokovic a 62% chance of defeating de Minaur at the ATP China Open tournament. Additionally, Djokovic has a 60% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Djokovic (-2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 23.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Alex de Minaur +167, Novak Djokovic -189
• First Set: Djokovic -164, de Minaur +130

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: de Minaur @ +167 via DraftKings
• First Set: de Minaur @ -140 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Alex de Minaur to win.

Although de Minaur is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP China Open match between Novak Djokovic and Alex de Minaur is scheduled to commence on Tuesday at 7:00 AM ET.

• Who: Novak Djokovic vs. Alex de Minaur
• Date: Tuesday, October 6, 2026
• Approx. Time: 7:00 AM ET/4:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Beijing, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Final

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Novak Djokovic, with a 62% win probability, will likely beat Alex de Minaur at the ATP China Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.