Mary Stoiana vs. Claire Liu prediction, odds, picks for WTA Sao Paulo 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Monday's Stoiana-Liu women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Liu a 54% chance of defeating Stoiana at the WTA Sao Paulo tournament. Additionally, Liu has a 53% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the bookmakers have got it right with the +1.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the over 21.5 games has a 52% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Claire Liu -128, Mary Stoiana +111
• First Set: Stoiana +100, Liu -125

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Stoiana @ +111 via DraftKings
• First Set: Liu @ -120 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Mary Stoiana to win.

Although Stoiana is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The WTA Sao Paulo match between Mary Stoiana and Claire Liu is scheduled to start on Monday at 9:00 AM ET.

• Who: Mary Stoiana vs. Claire Liu
• Date: Monday, September 14, 2026
• Approx. Time: 9:00 AM ET/6:00AM PT
• Tournament: WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women's, Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Claire Liu, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat Mary Stoiana at the WTA Sao Paulo tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.