Luciano Darderi vs. Casper Ruud prediction, odds, picks for ATP Japan Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Tuesday's Darderi-Ruud men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Ruud a 72% chance of beating Darderi at the ATP Japan Open tournament. Additionally, Ruud has a 68% chance of winning the first set, while the under 22.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Casper Ruud -288, Luciano Darderi +240
• First Set: Darderi +175, Ruud -227

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Darderi @ +240 via DraftKings
• First Set: Ruud @ -125 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Luciano Darderi to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Japan Open match between Luciano Darderi and Casper Ruud is scheduled to commence on Tuesday at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Luciano Darderi vs. Casper Ruud
• Date: Tuesday, September 29, 2026
• Approx. Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Tokyo, Japan Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Casper Ruud, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat Luciano Darderi at the ATP Japan Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.