Karen Khachanov vs. Learner Tien prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Karen Khachanov and Learner Tien will meet in the fourth round of the US Open 2026 on Monday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Learner Tien as the most likely winner in this Khachanov vs. Tien prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Monday's match, including best bets and picks.

Khachanov vs. Tien prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's Khachanov-Tien men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Tien a 58% chance of defeating Khachanov in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Tien has a 54% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Khachanov (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 40.5 games has a 60% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Learner Tien -182, Karen Khachanov +155
• First Set: Khachanov +120, Tien -152

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Khachanov @ +155 via DraftKings
• First Set: Tien @ -140 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Karen Khachanov to win.

Although Khachanov is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Karen Khachanov and Learner Tien is scheduled to start on Monday at 5:05 PM ET.

• Who: Karen Khachanov vs. Learner Tien
• Date: Monday, September 7, 2026
• Approx. Time: 5:05 PM ET/2:05PM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Fourth round

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Learner Tien, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat Karen Khachanov at the US Open 2026.

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