Daniil Medvedev vs. Frances Tiafoe prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Daniil Medvedev will square off with Frances Tiafoe in the fourth round of the US Open Men's Singles 2026 on Sunday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Daniil Medvedev as the most likely winner in this Medvedev vs. Tiafoe prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Medvedev vs. Tiafoe prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's Medvedev-Tiafoe men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Medvedev a 61% chance of beating Tiafoe in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Medvedev has a 59% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Medvedev (-2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 39.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Frances Tiafoe +140, Daniil Medvedev -160
• First Set: Medvedev -152, Tiafoe +120

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Tiafoe @ +140 via DraftKings
• First Set: Tiafoe @ -128 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Frances Tiafoe to win.

Although Tiafoe is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Daniil Medvedev and Frances Tiafoe is scheduled to commence on Sunday at 3:30 PM ET.

• Who: Daniil Medvedev vs. Frances Tiafoe
• Date: Sunday, September 6, 2026
• Approx. Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Fourth round

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Daniil Medvedev, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat Frances Tiafoe at the US Open 2026.

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