Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction, odds, picks for ATP Vienna Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's Medvedev-Alcaraz men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Alcaraz a 65% chance of beating Medvedev at the ATP Vienna Open tournament. Additionally, Alcaraz has a 62% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Medvedev (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 52% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Carlos Alcaraz -235, Daniil Medvedev +200
• First Set: Medvedev +162, Alcaraz -200

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Medvedev @ +200 via DraftKings
• First Set: Alcaraz @ -120 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Daniil Medvedev to win.

Although Medvedev is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Vienna Open match between Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz is scheduled to begin on Saturday at 10:00 AM ET.

• Who: Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz
• Date: Saturday, October 31, 2026
• Approx. Time: 10:00 AM ET/7:00 AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Vienna, Austria Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Semifinals

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with a 65% win probability, will likely beat Daniil Medvedev at the ATP Vienna Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.