Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jiri Lehecka prediction, odds, picks for ATP Japan Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Tuesday's Alcaraz-Lehecka men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Alcaraz a 77% chance of winning against Lehecka at the ATP Japan Open tournament. Additionally, Alcaraz has a 72% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Alcaraz (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 54% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Jiri Lehecka +330, Carlos Alcaraz -357
• First Set: Alcaraz -250, Lehecka +200

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Lehecka @ +330 via DraftKings
• First Set: Lehecka @ -133 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 22.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Japan Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Jiri Lehecka is scheduled to commence on Tuesday at 5:00 AM ET.

• Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jiri Lehecka
• Date: Tuesday, October 6, 2026
• Approx. Time: 5:00 AM ET/2:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Tokyo, Japan Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Final

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with a 77% win probability, will likely beat Jiri Lehecka at the ATP Japan Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.