Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will meet in the final of the US Open 2026 on Saturday.

Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Aryna Sabalenka as the most likely winner in this Sabalenka vs. Rybakina prediction.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

Sabalenka vs. Rybakina prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's Sabalenka-Rybakina women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Sabalenka a 58% chance of beating Rybakina in the US Open 2026. Additionally, Sabalenka has a 56% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Sabalenka (-1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 24.5 games has a 60% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Elena Rybakina +135, Aryna Sabalenka -143
• First Set: Sabalenka -139, Rybakina +110

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Rybakina @ +135 via DraftKings
• First Set: Rybakina @ -133 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Elena Rybakina to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina is scheduled to commence on Saturday at 4:00 PM ET.

• Who: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina
• Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
• Approx. Time: 4:00 PM ET/1:00PM PT
• Tournament: US Open Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Final

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Aryna Sabalenka, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat Elena Rybakina at the US Open 2026.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.