Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Matteo Berrettini prediction, odds, picks for ATP Japan Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Tuesday's Davidovich Fokina-Berrettini men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Davidovich Fokina a 55% chance of defeating Berrettini at the ATP Japan Open tournament. Additionally, Davidovich Fokina has a 55% chance of winning the first set, while the under 25.5 games has a 59% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Matteo Berrettini +126, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina -146
• First Set: Davidovich Fokina -139, Berrettini +110

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Berrettini @ +126 via DraftKings
• First Set: Berrettini @ -140 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Matteo Berrettini to win.

Although Berrettini is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Japan Open match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Matteo Berrettini is scheduled to begin on Tuesday at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Matteo Berrettini
• Date: Tuesday, September 29, 2026
• Approx. Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Tokyo, Japan Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat Matteo Berrettini at the ATP Japan Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.