Fans vs. Non-Fans: How America Predicted the NBA Opening Night

We asked 500 NBA fans and 500 non-fans to predict Opening Night. Both groups favored the Knicks and the Spurs. Both lost. The fans at least lost with conviction.

Key findings

• Lakers fans are the most confident fan base in America (61.7/100), even though the Lakers didn't play on Opening Night.
• 52% of fans are convinced they can out-predict a computer model, compared with 40% of non-fans.
• On all three games, fans' and non-fans' predictions landed within 1–2 points of each other.
• 83% of Knicks fans picked the Knicks to win, and the team lost.
• Thunder fans were the most biased in the survey, and their team won.
• Only 1 in 4 Americans saw LeBron's 76ers pulling off the upset.

Who Talked the Biggest Game

Before tip-off, we asked fans how confident they were, on a scale of 0 to 100, that their picks would beat a computer prediction model. Here's how the fan bases stacked up:

The most confident fans? Lakers fans, on a night their team had off. Spurs and Knicks fans came in second and fifth, and both teams lost at home. Bulls fans finished last. That one explains itself.

Fans vs. Everyone Else

Fans averaged a confidence score of 54 out of 100, compared with 47 for non-fans. When it comes to picks, fans are more convinced they can beat a computer model. Here's how the actual predictions shook out:

• Knicks vs. 76ers: fans gave the Knicks 56%, non-fans 54%
• Pistons vs. Celtics: 51% vs. 51%
• Spurs vs. Thunder: 54% vs. 55%

Watching hundreds of games made fans more confident. It didn't make them more accurate. Non-fans, meanwhile, had their own philosophy: 57% called at least one game a straight 50/50, compared with 49% of fans. That wasn’t the worst strategy in the end.

Heart Over Head

We also asked fans of the six Opening Night teams how they saw their own team's game, and the loyalty shows in the numbers:

Knicks fans gave the Knicks a 67% chance on Opening Night, compared with 55% from neutral fans, and 83% picked them to win. Final: 76ers 106, Knicks 100.

Spurs fans gave the Spurs 65% (neutral fans: 54%), and 75% picked them. Final: Thunder 116, Spurs 104.

Thunder fans were the most biased in the survey, giving OKC 66% compared with 46% from neutral fans. Final: OKC won. This time, it did.

Lakers fans aren't holding a grudge against LeBron: they gave the 76ers 45%, about the same as everyone else.

The Model Didn't Care About the Story

Only 1 in 4 Americans, fans and non-fans alike, backed LeBron's 76ers on Opening Night. Meanwhile, the Dimers NBA Player Projections projected his first game in a 76ers uniform at 29.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists. He finished with 30 (14 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists). Jaylen Brown's debut was projected at 33.4. He finished with 33.

Across all three games, the Dimers review found that:

• 62% of individual stat lines (109 of 177) landed within the projected range.
• Assists were missed by an average of 1.3, and rebounds by 1.7.
• 14 players hit all three lines, including Cade Cunningham and Josh Hart.
• Karl-Anthony Towns finished with 19 points and 12 rebounds against a projection of 18.8 and 11.8.

Paul George scored 38 in his Celtics debut, a franchise record, against a projection of 14.6. Victor Wembanyama shot 1-for-13 from the field.

Lakers fans were already sure they'd have called all of it. For everyone else, every player expected to take the court appears on Dimers' NBA Player Projections before tip-off, so you can put your gut to the test before you send your picks to the group chat.

Methodology

Two surveys were conducted on Prolific on Oct. 19, 2026, before the Opening Night games, among U.S. adults ages 21 and older: 500 NBA fans and 500 non-fans, with unweighted samples. Respondents split 100 points between the two teams in each of the three games and rated their confidence (0–100) that their picks would beat a computer model. The confidence rankings include only the fan bases with the most respondents. Fan-base data is descriptive. Points were virtual, and no money was involved. Player projection results come from the Dimers Opening Night review: projections were compared with official box scores, and a stat line counts as in range when points land within 3, or rebounds or assists within 2. The study was commissioned by Dimers, in line with their prediction market app recommendations.

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