Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Islanders NHL game on January 3, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL sport icon
NHL
Maple Leafs
3
4
UBS Arena
Islanders
UBS Arena
TEAM123OTT
Maple Leafs
0 2 1 0 3
Islanders
0 1 2 1 4
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Maple Leafs
    0%
  • Islanders
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123OTT
Maple Leafs
0 2 1 0 3
Islanders
0 1 2 1 4
OT1 04:10 Shot missed by Matthew Schaefer
OT1 03:52 Shot on goal by Tony DeAngelo saved by Joseph Woll
OT1 02:43 Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by David Rittich
OT1 02:06 Auston Matthews shot blocked by Jonathan Drouin
OT1 01:38 Shot missed by Matthew Knies
OT1 01:05 Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
P3 19:30 Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 19:27 Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by David Rittich
P3 19:00 Max Domi shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
P3 17:58 Troy Stecher shot blocked by Marc Gatcomb
P3 17:13 Shot missed by Emil Heineman
P3 14:37 Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Bobby McMann
P3 14:08 Shot on goal by Adam Pelech saved by Joseph Woll
P3 13:52 Matthew Benning shot blocked by teammate
P3 13:47 Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by David Rittich
P3 12:11 Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
P3 12:04 Shot missed by Simon Benoit
P3 11:08 Goal scored by Matthew Schaefer
P3 10:54 Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Joseph Woll
P3 10:38 Shot missed by Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Play by Play
  1. OT1 05:00
    End of 1st OT.
  2. OT1 04:11
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Islanders in neutral zone
  3. OT1 04:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Schaefer
  4. OT1 03:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tony DeAngelo saved by Joseph Woll
  5. OT1 02:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by David Rittich
  6. OT1 02:06
    SHOT
    Auston Matthews shot blocked by Jonathan Drouin
  7. OT1 01:38
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Knies
  8. OT1 01:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
  9. OT1 00:00
    John Tavares won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in neutral zone
  10. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  11. P3 19:35
    Giveaway by Anders Lee in defensive zone
  12. P3 19:30
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  13. P3 19:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by David Rittich
  14. P3 19:00
    SHOT
    Max Domi shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
  15. P3 17:58
    SHOT
    Troy Stecher shot blocked by Marc Gatcomb
  16. P3 17:15
    John Tavares won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in neutral zone
  17. P3 17:13
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Emil Heineman
  18. P3 14:37
    SHOT
    Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Bobby McMann
  19. P3 14:08
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Adam Pelech saved by Joseph Woll
  20. P3 13:52
    SHOT
    Matthew Benning shot blocked by teammate
  21. P3 13:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by David Rittich
  22. P3 12:25
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  23. P3 12:25
    Stoppage - Offside
  24. P3 12:12
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  25. P3 12:11
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
  26. P3 12:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Simon Benoit
  27. P3 11:10
    John Tavares won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in neutral zone
  28. P3 11:08
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Matthew Schaefer
    2-2
  29. P3 10:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Joseph Woll
  30. P3 10:38
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jean-Gabriel Pageau
  31. P3 10:37
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  32. P3 10:37
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
  33. P3 10:12
    Takeaway by Cole McWard in defensive zone
  34. P3 09:31
    Simon Benoit credited with hit on Cole McWard in defensive zone
  35. P3 09:14
    SHOT
    Emil Heineman shot blocked by Matthew Benning
  36. P3 08:54
    Emil Heineman credited with hit on Jake McCabe in offensive zone
  37. P3 08:51
    Takeaway by Jake McCabe in defensive zone
  38. P3 08:39
    Mathew Barzal won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
  39. P3 08:39
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  40. P3 08:14
    Mathew Barzal won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  41. P3 08:14
    Stoppage - Icing
  42. P3 06:59
    Giveaway by Marc Gatcomb in neutral zone
  43. P3 06:42
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  44. P3 06:20
    John Tavares won faceoff against Anders Lee in defensive zone
  45. P3 06:20
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  46. P3 06:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jonathan Drouin saved by Joseph Woll
  47. P3 05:31
    Giveaway by Easton Cowan in offensive zone
  48. P3 05:26
    Giveaway by Cole McWard in defensive zone
  49. P3 05:22
    Anders Lee won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
  50. P3 05:22
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  51. P3 04:46
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in neutral zone
  52. P3 04:46
    Stoppage - Offside
  53. P3 04:20
    John Tavares won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in neutral zone
  54. P3 04:20
    Stoppage - Offside
  55. P3 04:07
    Mathew Barzal won faceoff against Scott Laughton in defensive zone
  56. P3 04:07
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  57. P3 03:40
    SHOT
    Jonathan Drouin shot blocked by teammate
  58. P3 03:04
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jonathan Drouin in defensive zone
  59. P3 03:04
    Stoppage - Icing
  60. P3 02:48
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in defensive zone
  61. P3 02:48
    Stoppage - Icing
  62. P3 02:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Calum Ritchie saved by Joseph Woll
  63. P3 02:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Shabanov saved by Joseph Woll
  64. P3 02:19
    Calum Ritchie won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  65. P3 02:19
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  66. P3 02:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Marc Gatcomb saved by Joseph Woll
  67. P3 02:08
    Giveaway by Casey Cizikas in offensive zone
  68. P3 02:00
    SHOT
    Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Simon Benoit
  69. P3 01:35
    SHOT
    John Tavares shot blocked by Adam Pelech
  70. P3 01:32
    John Tavares won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in offensive zone
  71. P3 01:32
    Stoppage - Icing
  72. P3 01:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tony DeAngelo saved by Joseph Woll
  73. P3 01:13
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Adam Pelech
  74. P3 01:08
    SHOT
    Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  75. P3 01:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tony DeAngelo
  76. P3 01:00
    Anders Lee won faceoff against Calle Jarnkrok in offensive zone
  77. P3 01:00
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  78. P3 00:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan Pulock saved by Joseph Woll
  79. P3 00:47
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Simon Holmstrom
  80. P3 00:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Joseph Woll
  81. P3 00:00
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  82. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  83. P2 19:42
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in neutral zone
  84. P2 19:42
    Stoppage - Offside
  85. P2 19:33
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  86. P2 19:33
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  87. P2 19:22
    SHOT
    Scott Mayfield shot blocked by Scott Laughton
  88. P2 19:17
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in defensive zone
  89. P2 19:17
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  90. P2 19:11
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in defensive zone
  91. P2 19:11
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  92. P2 19:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kyle MacLean saved by Joseph Woll
  93. P2 18:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jean-Gabriel Pageau saved by Joseph Woll
  94. P2 17:39
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  95. P2 17:39
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  96. P2 17:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Joseph Woll
  97. P2 17:19
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in neutral zone
  98. P2 17:19
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Auston Matthews assisted by Bobby McMann and Max Domi
    2-1
  99. P2 17:17
    SHOT
    Auston Matthews shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
  100. P2 17:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Maple Leafs saved by David Rittich
  101. P2 17:05
    Mathew Barzal won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  102. P2 17:05
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  103. P2 16:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by David Rittich
  104. P2 16:49
    John Tavares won faceoff against Calum Ritchie in offensive zone
  105. P2 16:49
    Stoppage - Icing
  106. P2 16:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by David Rittich
  107. P2 16:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by David Rittich
  108. P2 16:07
    Maxim Tsyplakov credited with hit on Matthew Benning in offensive zone
  109. P2 16:03
    Nicolas Roy credited with hit on Max Shabanov in defensive zone
  110. P2 15:51
    Maxim Tsyplakov won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
  111. P2 15:51
    Stoppage - High Stick - TV timeout
  112. P2 15:40
    Simon Benoit credited with hit on Marc Gatcomb in defensive zone
  113. P2 15:20
    Giveaway by Kyle MacLean in offensive zone
  114. P2 15:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Emil Heineman saved by Joseph Woll
  115. P2 14:13
    Giveaway by John Tavares in offensive zone
  116. P2 13:18
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in defensive zone
  117. P2 13:18
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  118. P2 13:16
    SHOT
    Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by teammate
  119. P2 13:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kyle MacLean saved by Joseph Woll
  120. P2 12:29
    Takeaway by Scott Mayfield in defensive zone
  121. P2 12:05
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Calum Ritchie in neutral zone
  122. P2 11:21
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in defensive zone
  123. P2 11:21
    Stoppage - Icing
  124. P2 10:31
    SHOT
    Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by teammate
  125. P2 10:17
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  126. P2 10:17
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  127. P2 10:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by David Rittich
  128. P2 10:14
    SHOT
    Calle Jarnkrok shot blocked by Adam Pelech
  129. P2 10:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by David Rittich
  130. P2 09:30
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  131. P2 09:29
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Auston Matthews
    1-1
  132. P2 09:03
    SHOT
    Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Scott Mayfield
  133. P2 08:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Calum Ritchie
  134. P2 08:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Easton Cowan
  135. P2 08:10
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Calum Ritchie in offensive zone
  136. P2 08:10
    Stoppage - Icing
  137. P2 07:56
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Calum Ritchie in defensive zone
  138. P2 07:56
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  139. P2 07:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Joseph Woll
  140. P2 06:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Emil Heineman
  141. P2 06:22
    Mathew Barzal won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  142. P2 06:22
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  143. P2 05:34
    SHOT
    Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Adam Pelech
  144. P2 05:08
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bobby McMann
  145. P2 04:48
    SHOT
    Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Auston Matthews
  146. P2 04:26
    SHOT
    Ryan Pulock shot blocked by Auston Matthews
  147. P2 03:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Tavares
  148. P2 03:30
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Simon Holmstrom
  149. P2 03:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Troy Stecher
  150. P2 02:59
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in defensive zone
  151. P2 02:59
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  152. P2 02:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mathew Barzal saved by Joseph Woll
  153. P2 02:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by David Rittich
  154. P2 02:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bobby McMann
  155. P2 02:22
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Steven Lorentz
  156. P2 01:54
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kyle MacLean
  157. P2 01:38
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  158. P2 01:38
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  159. P2 01:10
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Calum Ritchie in neutral zone
  160. P2 01:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Adam Pelech
  161. P2 01:06
    Jonathan Drouin won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  162. P2 01:06
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  163. P2 01:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Adam Pelech saved by Joseph Woll
  164. P2 00:34
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mathew Barzal
  165. P2 00:09
    Giveaway by David Rittich in defensive zone
  166. P2 00:03
    Emil Heineman credited with hit on Jake McCabe in neutral zone
  167. P2 00:00
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in neutral zone
  168. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  169. P1 19:53
    SHOT
    Max Domi shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
  170. P1 19:50
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in offensive zone
  171. P1 19:50
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  172. P1 19:20
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  173. P1 19:20
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  174. P1 19:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by David Rittich
  175. P1 19:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
  176. P1 18:58
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Knies
  177. P1 18:09
    SHOT
    Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Bobby McMann
  178. P1 18:06
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anders Lee
  179. P1 17:53
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by David Rittich
  180. P1 17:41
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan Pulock
  181. P1 17:16
    SHOT
    Jake McCabe shot blocked by Cole McWard
  182. P1 16:33
    Giveaway by Matias Maccelli in offensive zone
  183. P1 16:22
    Simon Benoit credited with hit on Jonathan Drouin in defensive zone
  184. P1 16:01
    SHOT
    Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Matthew Benning
  185. P1 15:33
    Giveaway by Matthew Knies in offensive zone
  186. P1 15:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by David Rittich
  187. P1 14:36
    Takeaway by Casey Cizikas in neutral zone
  188. P1 14:26
    SHOT
    Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Matthew Benning
  189. P1 13:40
    Shorthanded - Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Maxim Tsyplakov in defensive zone
  190. P1 13:40
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  191. P1 13:37
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Max Shabanov saved by Joseph Woll
  192. P1 13:07
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Tony DeAngelo
  193. P1 12:24
    Shorthanded - Takeaway by Troy Stecher in defensive zone
  194. P1 11:52
    Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Jonathan Drouin in defensive zone
  195. P1 11:52
    Penalty to John Tavares 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by Scott Mayfield)
  196. P1 11:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mathew Barzal
  197. P1 11:06
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Adam Pelech
  198. P1 10:50
    Mathew Barzal won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  199. P1 10:50
    Penalty to Ryan Pulock 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Max Domi)
  200. P1 10:50
    Penalty to Max Domi 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by Ryan Pulock)
  201. P1 10:50
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  202. P1 10:15
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Schaefer
  203. P1 10:13
    Anders Lee won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  204. P1 10:13
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  205. P1 10:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Scott Mayfield saved by Joseph Woll
  206. P1 10:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Calum Ritchie saved by Joseph Woll
  207. P1 09:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mathew Barzal saved by Joseph Woll
  208. P1 08:21
    SHOT
    Power play - Auston Matthews shot blocked by Adam Pelech
  209. P1 08:11
    Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in offensive zone
  210. P1 08:11
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  211. P1 08:09
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
  212. P1 07:44
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by John Tavares
  213. P1 07:18
    Shorthanded - Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  214. P1 07:18
    Penalty to Mathew Barzal 2 minutes for Misconduct
  215. P1 06:25
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in neutral zone
  216. P1 06:25
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  217. P1 05:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jean-Gabriel Pageau saved by Joseph Woll
  218. P1 05:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Troy Stecher
  219. P1 04:58
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
  220. P1 04:55
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in offensive zone
  221. P1 04:55
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  222. P1 04:54
    SHOT
    Simon Benoit shot blocked by Simon Holmstrom
  223. P1 04:40
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jonathan Drouin in defensive zone
  224. P1 04:40
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  225. P1 04:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Adam Pelech saved by Joseph Woll
  226. P1 04:30
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tony DeAngelo
  227. P1 03:40
    Mathew Barzal won faceoff against Max Domi in defensive zone
  228. P1 03:40
    Stoppage - Skater Puck Frozen
  229. P1 03:11
    Giveaway by Tony DeAngelo in defensive zone
  230. P1 02:45
    SHOT
    Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Marc Gatcomb
  231. P1 02:42
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Kyle MacLean in offensive zone
  232. P1 01:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Knies
  233. P1 00:35
    Anders Lee credited with hit on Jake McCabe in offensive zone
  234. P1 00:16
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  235. P1 00:00
    Mathew Barzal won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  236. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Islanders
21Shots on Goal25
57% Faceoff Win % 43%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 1/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins4
19Hits21
11 Shots Blocked 11
19Giveaways17
Maple LeafsTOR
IslandersNYI
21Shots on Goal25
57% Faceoff Win % 43%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 1/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins4
19Hits21
11 Shots Blocked 11
19Giveaways17

Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Islanders
  • Date: Saturday, January 3, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: UBS Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Maple Leafs favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs -112, Islanders +105

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 52%
  • Islanders: 48%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 52%, while the Islanders have a win probability of 48%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Maple Leafs are more likely to beat the Islanders in the NHL game at UBS Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Islanders predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.