Maple Leafs vs. Capitals Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Capitals NHL game on November 28, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Maple Leafs
2
4
Capital One Arena
Capitals
Capital One Arena
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
1 1 0 2
Capitals
0 1 3 4
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Maple Leafs
    0%
  • Capitals
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
1 1 0 2
Capitals
0 1 3 4
P3 19:58 Goal scored by Tom Wilson
P3 19:25 Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Logan Thompson
P3 19:10 Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
P3 19:03 Shot missed by John Tavares
P3 18:34 Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
P3 17:14 Shot missed by Jake McCabe
P3 17:04 John Carlson shot blocked by Dakota Joshua
P3 16:04 Goal scored by Jakob Chychrun assisted by Ryan Leonard and Connor McMichael
P3 15:48 Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Easton Cowan
P3 15:34 Shot missed by Bobby McMann
P3 15:33 Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Logan Thompson
P3 15:23 Shot on goal by Nicolas Roy saved by Logan Thompson
P3 14:56 Shot missed by Scott Laughton
P3 13:16 Goal scored by Anthony Beauvillier assisted by Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome
P3 13:09 Shot missed by Dylan Strome
P3 12:07 Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P3 12:06 Shot on goal by Connor McMichael saved by Joseph Woll
P3 11:50 Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Joseph Woll
P3 11:36 Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Joseph Woll
P3 11:08 Tom Wilson shot blocked by Matias Maccelli
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:58
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Brandon Duhaime in neutral zone
  3. P3 19:58
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Tom Wilson
    2-4
  4. P3 19:34
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson credited with hit on Tom Wilson in neutral zone
  5. P3 19:27
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  6. P3 19:27
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  7. P3 19:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Logan Thompson
  8. P3 19:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
  9. P3 19:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Tavares
  10. P3 18:34
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
  11. P3 18:31
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  12. P3 18:31
    Stoppage - Icing - Visitor Timeout
  13. P3 18:09
    Matthew Knies credited with hit on Tom Wilson in neutral zone
  14. P3 17:30
    Jake McCabe credited with hit on Anthony Beauvillier in neutral zone
  15. P3 17:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake McCabe
  16. P3 17:04
    SHOT
    John Carlson shot blocked by Dakota Joshua
  17. P3 16:14
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  18. P3 16:14
    Stoppage - Offside
  19. P3 16:04
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
  20. P3 16:04
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Jakob Chychrun assisted by Ryan Leonard and Connor McMichael
    2-3
  21. P3 15:48
    SHOT
    Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Easton Cowan
  22. P3 15:34
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bobby McMann
  23. P3 15:33
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Logan Thompson
  24. P3 15:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicolas Roy saved by Logan Thompson
  25. P3 14:56
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Scott Laughton
  26. P3 14:37
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  27. P3 14:37
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout
  28. P3 13:58
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
  29. P3 13:58
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  30. P3 13:16
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Connor McMichael in neutral zone
  31. P3 13:16
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Anthony Beauvillier assisted by Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome
    2-2
  32. P3 13:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dylan Strome
  33. P3 12:07
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
  34. P3 12:07
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  35. P3 12:07
    SHOT
    Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  36. P3 12:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Connor McMichael saved by Joseph Woll
  37. P3 12:02
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
  38. P3 12:02
    Stoppage - Icing
  39. P3 11:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Joseph Woll
  40. P3 11:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Joseph Woll
  41. P3 11:15
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  42. P3 11:15
    Stoppage - Icing
  43. P3 11:08
    SHOT
    Tom Wilson shot blocked by Matias Maccelli
  44. P3 10:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Joseph Woll
  45. P3 09:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Troy Stecher
  46. P3 09:38
    SHOT
    Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Bobby McMann
  47. P3 09:34
    Ethen Frank won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
  48. P3 09:34
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  49. P3 08:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Joseph Woll
  50. P3 08:56
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  51. P3 08:56
    Stoppage
  52. P3 08:34
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
  53. P3 08:34
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  54. P3 08:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Logan Thompson
  55. P3 08:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Joseph Woll
  56. P3 07:26
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  57. P3 07:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan Leonard saved by Joseph Woll
  58. P3 07:16
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dakota Joshua
  59. P3 06:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Justin Sourdif
  60. P3 06:26
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Logan Thompson
  61. P3 06:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Logan Thompson
  62. P3 06:01
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  63. P3 06:01
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  64. P3 05:34
    SHOT
    Trevor van Riemsdyk shot blocked by teammate
  65. P3 05:32
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  66. P3 05:32
    Stoppage
  67. P3 05:28
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
  68. P3 03:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
  69. P3 03:38
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
  70. P3 03:37
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  71. P3 03:37
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  72. P3 03:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Joseph Woll
  73. P3 03:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Logan Thompson
  74. P3 03:12
    SHOT
    Steven Lorentz shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
  75. P3 03:05
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Scott Laughton in defensive zone
  76. P3 03:05
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  77. P3 03:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Easton Cowan
  78. P3 02:55
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Easton Cowan
  79. P3 02:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Logan Thompson
  80. P3 02:09
    SHOT
    Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Auston Matthews
  81. P3 01:53
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Joseph Woll
  82. P3 01:37
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tom Wilson in defensive zone
  83. P3 01:37
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  84. P3 01:31
    SHOT
    Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  85. P3 01:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nicolas Roy
  86. P3 01:09
    SHOT
    Nicolas Roy shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
  87. P3 00:00
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
  88. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  89. P2 19:19
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Knies
  90. P2 18:37
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  91. P2 18:37
    Stoppage - Icing
  92. P2 17:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Connor McMichael saved by Joseph Woll
  93. P2 17:48
    Simon Benoit credited with hit on Ryan Leonard in defensive zone
  94. P2 17:47
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan Leonard
  95. P2 17:28
    SHOT
    Justin Sourdif shot blocked by Nicholas Robertson
  96. P2 17:08
    SHOT
    Aliaksei Protas shot blocked by Matthew Knies
  97. P2 16:50
    SHOT
    Justin Sourdif shot blocked by Matthew Knies
  98. P2 16:41
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Maple Leafs
  99. P2 16:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ethen Frank saved by Joseph Woll
  100. P2 15:29
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  101. P2 15:29
    Stoppage - Icing
  102. P2 14:59
    Matias Maccelli credited with hit on Matt Roy in offensive zone
  103. P2 14:47
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  104. P2 14:47
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  105. P2 14:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Joseph Woll
  106. P2 14:22
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  107. P2 14:22
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  108. P2 14:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Joseph Woll
  109. P2 14:13
    SHOT
    Auston Matthews shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
  110. P2 13:53
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
  111. P2 13:53
    Stoppage - Icing
  112. P2 13:18
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
  113. P2 13:18
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Connor McMichael
    2-1
  114. P2 13:16
    SHOT
    Connor McMichael shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  115. P2 13:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Joseph Woll
  116. P2 13:05
    SHOT
    Tom Wilson shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  117. P2 13:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Joseph Woll
  118. P2 12:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Connor McMichael
  119. P2 11:54
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dylan Strome
  120. P2 11:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Easton Cowan
  121. P2 11:29
    SHOT
    John Tavares shot blocked by Dylan Strome
  122. P2 11:26
    John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Strome in offensive zone
  123. P2 10:43
    SHOT
    Matias Maccelli shot blocked by Hendrix Lapierre
  124. P2 10:24
    Jake McCabe credited with hit on Sonny Milano in defensive zone
  125. P2 10:01
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Hendrix Lapierre in defensive zone
  126. P2 10:01
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches - TV timeout
  127. P2 09:56
    Sonny Milano won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
  128. P2 09:56
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  129. P2 09:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Joseph Woll
  130. P2 09:31
    Matthew Knies credited with hit on John Carlson in neutral zone
  131. P2 09:05
    Nicholas Robertson won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
  132. P2 09:05
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  133. P2 09:01
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
  134. P2 08:46
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
  135. P2 08:46
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  136. P2 08:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Joseph Woll
  137. P2 08:41
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  138. P2 08:41
    Stoppage - Skater Puck Frozen
  139. P2 08:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Logan Thompson
  140. P2 08:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Logan Thompson
  141. P2 07:48
    John Tavares credited with hit on Connor McMichael in offensive zone
  142. P2 07:37
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  143. P2 07:37
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  144. P2 07:23
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dakota Mermis
  145. P2 07:12
    Bobby McMann credited with hit on Sonny Milano in offensive zone
  146. P2 06:16
    Shorthanded - Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
  147. P2 06:16
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  148. P2 06:14
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Anthony Beauvillier saved by Joseph Woll
  149. P2 05:30
    Power play - Anthony Beauvillier won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  150. P2 05:30
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  151. P2 05:28
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Joseph Woll
  152. P2 04:47
    Shorthanded - Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
  153. P2 04:47
    Stoppage - Offside
  154. P2 04:31
    Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  155. P2 03:52
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nicolas Roy
  156. P2 03:06
    SHOT
    Troy Stecher shot blocked by Matt Roy
  157. P2 02:53
    John Tavares won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
  158. P2 02:53
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  159. P2 02:49
    John Tavares won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
  160. P2 02:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Knies
  161. P2 02:41
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Logan Thompson
  162. P2 01:47
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Ryan Leonard
  163. P2 01:45
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Joseph Woll
  164. P2 01:34
    SHOT
    Power play - Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  165. P2 00:46
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Joseph Woll
  166. P2 00:41
    Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  167. P2 00:29
    SHOT
    Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  168. P2 00:17
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Dylan Strome in offensive zone
  169. P2 00:17
    Stoppage - Icing
  170. P2 00:10
    SHOT
    Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
  171. P2 00:00
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
  172. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  173. P1 19:06
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Connor McMichael
  174. P1 18:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dakota Mermis saved by Logan Thompson
  175. P1 17:26
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
  176. P1 17:26
    Stoppage - Icing
  177. P1 17:19
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  178. P1 17:19
    Stoppage - Icing
  179. P1 17:02
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
  180. P1 17:02
    Stoppage - Icing
  181. P1 16:50
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Tavares
  182. P1 16:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Logan Thompson
  183. P1 16:31
    SHOT
    Easton Cowan shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun
  184. P1 15:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Logan Thompson
  185. P1 15:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
  186. P1 14:13
    SHOT
    Bobby McMann shot blocked by Brandon Duhaime
  187. P1 12:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Logan Thompson
  188. P1 12:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Joseph Woll
  189. P1 11:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Knies
  190. P1 10:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Steven Lorentz
  191. P1 08:25
    Easton Cowan credited with hit on Jakob Chychrun in offensive zone
  192. P1 08:18
    SHOT
    Brandon Duhaime shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  193. P1 08:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Connor McMichael saved by Joseph Woll
  194. P1 07:32
    SHOT
    Justin Sourdif shot blocked by Dakota Mermis
  195. P1 06:41
    SHOT
    Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  196. P1 06:28
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Joseph Woll
  197. P1 06:26
    SHOT
    Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  198. P1 06:06
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Carlson
  199. P1 05:52
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  200. P1 05:52
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  201. P1 05:50
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Justin Sourdif
  202. P1 05:38
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  203. P1 05:38
    Stoppage - Offside
  204. P1 05:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Simon Benoit
  205. P1 05:11
    Hendrix Lapierre won faceoff against Dakota Joshua in neutral zone
  206. P1 05:11
    Stoppage - High Stick
  207. P1 05:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Joseph Woll
  208. P1 05:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matt Roy saved by Joseph Woll
  209. P1 03:52
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Justin Sourdif
  210. P1 03:07
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  211. P1 03:07
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Morgan Rielly assisted by Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Nicolas Roy
    1-0
  212. P1 01:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Connor McMichael
  213. P1 01:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan Leonard saved by Joseph Woll
  214. P1 01:21
    Nicholas Robertson credited with hit on Martin Fehervary in defensive zone
  215. P1 01:17
    Brandon Duhaime credited with hit on Troy Stecher in offensive zone
  216. P1 01:14
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
  217. P1 01:14
    Stoppage - Icing
  218. P1 01:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Joseph Woll
  219. P1 00:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Trevor van Riemsdyk saved by Joseph Woll
  220. P1 00:30
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  221. P1 00:30
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  222. P1 00:21
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
  223. P1 00:21
    Stoppage - Video Review
  224. P1 00:21
    Stoppage - Net Dislodged Defensive Skater
  225. P1 00:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Beauvillier saved by Joseph Woll
  226. P1 00:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Beauvillier saved by Joseph Woll
  227. P1 00:00
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  228. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Capitals
22Shots on Goal34
59% Faceoff Win % 41%
0/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins0
28Hits17
14 Shots Blocked 12
17Giveaways22
Maple LeafsTOR
CapitalsWSH
22Shots on Goal34
59% Faceoff Win % 41%
0/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins0
28Hits17
14 Shots Blocked 12
17Giveaways22

Maple Leafs vs. Capitals: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Capitals
  • Date: Friday, November 28, 2025
  • Time: 5:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Capital One Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Capitals favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +143, Capitals -166

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 42%
  • Capitals: 58%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 42%, while the Capitals have a win probability of 58%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Capitals are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Capital One Arena on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Capitals predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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