Lightning vs. Canadiens Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Canadiens NHL game on May 1, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
Get 6 months of Dimers Pro for just $99.99
FINAL
NHL
Add this game to My Favorites
FINAL
Add this game to My Favorites
NHL sport icon
NHL
Lightning
1
0
Bell Centre
Canadiens
Bell Centre
TEAM123OTT
Lightning
0 0 0 1 1
Canadiens
0 0 0 0 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Lightning
    100%
  • Canadiens
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123OTT
Lightning
0 0 0 1 1
Canadiens
0 0 0 0 0
OT1 09:00 Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Jakub Dobes
OT1 08:34 Kirby Dach shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
OT1 07:37 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
OT1 06:41 Power play - Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
OT1 05:38 Power play - Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
OT1 05:17 Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
OT1 05:15 Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Phillip Danault
OT1 01:56 Shot missed by Kaiden Guhle
OT1 01:54 Shot on goal by Cole Caufield saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
OT1 00:47 Shot on goal by Ivan Demidov saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:27 Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 18:17 Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
P3 17:53 Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 17:30 Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 17:06 Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 17:01 Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Alex Newhook
P3 12:40 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 12:22 Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Mike Matheson
P3 12:16 Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Lane Hutson
P3 11:11 Shot on goal by Ivan Demidov saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Play by Play
  1. OT1 20:00
    End of 1st OT.
  2. OT1 20:00
    End of 1st OT.
  3. OT1 09:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Jakub Dobes
  4. OT1 08:34
    SHOT
    Kirby Dach shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  5. OT1 07:39
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  6. OT1 07:39
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  7. OT1 07:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
  8. OT1 06:41
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  9. OT1 05:38
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
  10. OT1 05:30
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  11. OT1 05:21
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  12. OT1 05:21
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  13. OT1 05:17
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  14. OT1 05:15
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Phillip Danault
  15. OT1 03:04
    Giveaway by Darren Raddysh in neutral zone
  16. OT1 03:00
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Alex Newhook in neutral zone
  17. OT1 01:56
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kaiden Guhle
  18. OT1 01:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Cole Caufield saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  19. OT1 01:26
    Lightning won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
  20. OT1 00:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ivan Demidov saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  21. OT1 00:00
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in neutral zone
  22. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  23. P3 18:45
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  24. P3 18:45
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  25. P3 18:27
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  26. P3 18:17
    SHOT
    Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
  27. P3 17:53
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  28. P3 17:30
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jakub Dobes
  29. P3 17:06
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  30. P3 17:01
    SHOT
    Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Alex Newhook
  31. P3 16:42
    Penalty to Ivan Demidov 2 minutes for Misconduct
  32. P3 16:16
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  33. P3 16:16
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  34. P3 14:45
    Jayden Struble credited with hit on Brayden Point in neutral zone
  35. P3 14:07
    Erik Cernak credited with hit on Ivan Demidov in defensive zone
  36. P3 13:50
    Josh Anderson credited with hit on Brandon Hagel in offensive zone
  37. P3 12:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
  38. P3 12:22
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Mike Matheson
  39. P3 12:20
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
  40. P3 12:16
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Lane Hutson
  41. P3 11:27
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
  42. P3 11:27
    Penalty to Jayden Struble 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by J.J. Moser)
  43. P3 11:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ivan Demidov saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  44. P3 10:15
    SHOT
    Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Brandon Hagel
  45. P3 09:00
    SHOT
    Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Lane Hutson
  46. P3 08:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zachary Bolduc saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  47. P3 08:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
  48. P3 07:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Anderson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  49. P3 07:31
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  50. P3 07:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dominic James saved by Jakub Dobes
  51. P3 06:47
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
  52. P3 06:22
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  53. P3 05:49
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  54. P3 05:33
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  55. P3 05:11
    Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  56. P3 05:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Jakub Dobes
  57. P3 04:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Lane Hutson
  58. P3 04:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kaiden Guhle saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  59. P3 03:13
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  60. P3 03:13
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  61. P3 01:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex Newhook saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  62. P3 01:26
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Alex Newhook in defensive zone
  63. P3 01:26
    Stoppage - Icing
  64. P3 00:00
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
  65. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  66. P2 19:19
    SHOT
    Mike Matheson shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  67. P2 19:01
    SHOT
    Mike Matheson shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  68. P2 18:35
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Alex Newhook in defensive zone
  69. P2 18:33
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Ivan Demidov
  70. P2 18:33
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Ivan Demidov saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  71. P2 18:10
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Cole Caufield saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  72. P2 17:35
    Power play - Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  73. P2 17:35
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  74. P2 16:54
    Lightning won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
  75. P2 16:09
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  76. P2 16:02
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Cole Caufield
  77. P2 16:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Arber Xhekaj saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  78. P2 14:27
    Ivan Demidov credited with hit on J.J. Moser in defensive zone
  79. P2 14:24
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by teammate
  80. P2 14:11
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
  81. P2 13:44
    SHOT
    Nick Paul shot blocked by Alexandre Texier
  82. P2 12:58
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
  83. P2 12:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Jakub Dobes
  84. P2 12:43
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Zachary Bolduc in offensive zone
  85. P2 12:29
    Brendan Gallagher credited with hit on Charle-Edouard D'Astous in offensive zone
  86. P2 12:07
    Dominic James won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
  87. P2 12:07
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  88. P2 12:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dominic James
  89. P2 11:43
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
  90. P2 11:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Jakub Dobes
  91. P2 11:05
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Canadiens in offensive zone
  92. P2 11:05
    Stoppage - Offside
  93. P2 10:36
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
  94. P2 10:36
    Stoppage - Offside
  95. P2 10:25
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
  96. P2 10:25
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  97. P2 10:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Emil Lilleberg
  98. P2 09:58
    SHOT
    Mike Matheson shot blocked by teammate
  99. P2 09:01
    SHOT
    Zemgus Girgensons shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
  100. P2 07:52
    SHOT
    Power play - Nick Paul shot blocked by Mike Matheson
  101. P2 07:38
    Lightning won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
  102. P2 06:50
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot missed by Alexandre Carrier
  103. P2 06:14
    Lightning won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
  104. P2 06:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  105. P2 05:58
    Lightning won faceoff against Canadiens in offensive zone
  106. P2 05:45
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  107. P2 05:40
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
  108. P2 05:40
    Stoppage - Icing
  109. P2 05:31
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by teammate
  110. P2 05:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Phillip Danault
  111. P2 05:03
    SHOT
    Phillip Danault shot blocked by Emil Lilleberg
  112. P2 04:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Jakub Dobes
  113. P2 04:21
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  114. P2 03:35
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  115. P2 03:33
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Cole Caufield saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  116. P2 03:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  117. P2 02:25
    Gage Goncalves won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
  118. P2 02:25
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  119. P2 00:41
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
  120. P2 00:20
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Nick Suzuki
  121. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  122. P1 19:49
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  123. P1 19:43
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  124. P1 19:32
    SHOT
    Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by teammate
  125. P1 18:46
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
  126. P1 18:46
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  127. P1 18:32
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Ivan Demidov
  128. P1 17:15
    SHOT
    Alex Newhook shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  129. P1 16:41
    SHOT
    Emil Lilleberg shot blocked by teammate
  130. P1 15:52
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  131. P1 15:51
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Lane Hutson
  132. P1 15:02
    SHOT
    Zemgus Girgensons shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
  133. P1 14:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Evans saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  134. P1 14:11
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Mike Matheson
  135. P1 14:09
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
  136. P1 14:09
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
  137. P1 13:06
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Lane Hutson
  138. P1 12:13
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Phillip Danault in defensive zone
  139. P1 12:13
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  140. P1 11:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alexandre Texier saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  141. P1 10:28
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alexandre Carrier
  142. P1 10:06
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  143. P1 10:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Evans saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  144. P1 09:24
    Lightning won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
  145. P1 07:40
    SHOT
    Nick Paul shot blocked by Phillip Danault
  146. P1 07:22
    SHOT
    Emil Lilleberg shot blocked by teammate
  147. P1 07:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Jakub Dobes
  148. P1 06:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jakub Dobes
  149. P1 06:18
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský
  150. P1 05:22
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ivan Demidov
  151. P1 05:12
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jayden Struble
  152. P1 04:50
    SHOT
    Brendan Gallagher shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  153. P1 04:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  154. P1 03:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Jakub Dobes
  155. P1 03:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
  156. P1 02:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  157. P1 02:38
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  158. P1 02:30
    Giveaway by Phillip Danault in defensive zone
  159. P1 02:29
    Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Phillip Danault in offensive zone
  160. P1 01:54
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Jake Evans in defensive zone
  161. P1 01:54
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  162. P1 01:34
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Alex Newhook in offensive zone
  163. P1 01:34
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  164. P1 01:27
    Zachary Bolduc credited with hit on J.J. Moser in offensive zone
  165. P1 01:02
    Yanni Gourde credited with hit on Lane Hutson in neutral zone
  166. P1 00:39
    SHOT
    Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Nick Paul
  167. P1 00:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kaiden Guhle saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  168. P1 00:19
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  169. P1 00:19
    Stoppage - Icing
  170. P1 00:08
    Josh Anderson credited with hit on Erik Cernak in offensive zone
  171. P1 00:06
    Phillip Danault credited with hit on Ryan McDonagh in offensive zone
Stats
Lightning
STATS
Canadiens
33Shots on Goal30
49% Faceoff Win % 51%
3/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
8Penalty Infraction Mins8
37Hits50
13 Shots Blocked 22
17Giveaways20
LightningTB
CanadiensMTL
33Shots on Goal30
49% Faceoff Win % 51%
3/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
8Penalty Infraction Mins8
37Hits50
13 Shots Blocked 22
17Giveaways20

Lightning vs. Canadiens: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Lightning vs. Canadiens
  • Date: Friday, May 1, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Bell Centre

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 5.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Lightning 53¢, Canadiens 48¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Lightning: 52%
  • Canadiens: 48%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 52%, while the Canadiens have a win probability of 48%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Canadiens in the NHL game at Bell Centre on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lightning vs. Canadiens predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.