Canadiens vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Canadiens vs. Lightning NHL game on April 19, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Canadiens
4
3
Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Benchmark International Arena
TEAM123OTT
Canadiens
1 1 1 1 4
Lightning
0 2 1 0 3
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Canadiens
    100%
  • Lightning
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123OTT
Canadiens
1 1 1 1 4
Lightning
0 2 1 0 3
OT1 01:22 Power play - Goal scored by Juraj Slafkovský assisted by Lane Hutson and Nick Suzuki
OT1 00:56 Power play - Shot on goal by Cole Caufield saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 19:31 Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
P3 19:23 Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 19:00 Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by teammate
P3 18:53 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 18:49 Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 17:29 Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
P3 16:09 Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Mike Matheson
P3 16:01 Mike Matheson shot blocked by Erik Cernak
P3 13:33 Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
P3 10:54 Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by teammate
P3 08:56 Power play - Goal scored by Brandon Hagel assisted by Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov
P3 08:43 Power play - Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
P3 06:38 Corey Perry shot blocked by Jake Evans
P3 05:12 Shorthanded - Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Cole Caufield
P3 04:54 Power play - Shot on goal by Cole Caufield saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 04:42 Power play - Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
P3 03:57 Arber Xhekaj shot blocked by J.J. Moser
P3 03:48 Shot missed by Zachary Bolduc
Play by Play
  1. OT1 20:00
    End of 1st OT.
  2. OT1 20:00
    End of 1st OT.
  3. OT1 01:22
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Juraj Slafkovský assisted by Lane Hutson and Nick Suzuki
    4-3
  4. OT1 00:59
    Power play - Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  5. OT1 00:56
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Cole Caufield saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  6. OT1 00:00
    Power play - Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  7. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  8. P3 19:39
    Penalty to Jake Guentzel 2 minutes for High Sticking (Drawn by Kaiden Guhle)
  9. P3 19:31
    SHOT
    Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
  10. P3 19:23
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  11. P3 19:17
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Alex Newhook in defensive zone
  12. P3 19:00
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by teammate
  13. P3 18:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  14. P3 18:51
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  15. P3 18:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  16. P3 17:36
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
  17. P3 17:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  18. P3 16:18
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  19. P3 16:09
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Mike Matheson
  20. P3 16:01
    SHOT
    Mike Matheson shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  21. P3 15:02
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  22. P3 14:32
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
  23. P3 14:32
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  24. P3 14:00
    Alexandre Texier won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
  25. P3 14:00
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout
  26. P3 13:33
    SHOT
    Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  27. P3 10:54
    SHOT
    Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by teammate
  28. P3 09:29
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Alex Newhook in neutral zone
  29. P3 08:58
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  30. P3 08:56
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Brandon Hagel assisted by Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov
    3-3
  31. P3 08:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
  32. P3 07:34
    Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  33. P3 07:34
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  34. P3 07:28
    Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  35. P3 07:28
    Penalty to Zachary Bolduc 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by J.J. Moser)
  36. P3 07:15
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in offensive zone
  37. P3 07:03
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in offensive zone
  38. P3 06:38
    SHOT
    Corey Perry shot blocked by Jake Evans
  39. P3 06:15
    Dominic James won faceoff against Jake Evans in neutral zone
  40. P3 06:15
    Stoppage - Hand Pass - TV timeout
  41. P3 05:56
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  42. P3 05:15
    Power play - Giveaway by Lane Hutson in defensive zone
  43. P3 05:12
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Cole Caufield
  44. P3 04:57
    Power play - Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in offensive zone
  45. P3 04:54
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Cole Caufield saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  46. P3 04:48
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  47. P3 04:42
    SHOT
    Power play - Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  48. P3 04:20
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  49. P3 04:06
    Stoppage - Offside
  50. P3 03:57
    SHOT
    Arber Xhekaj shot blocked by J.J. Moser
  51. P3 03:48
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zachary Bolduc
  52. P3 03:46
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  53. P3 03:40
    SHOT
    Arber Xhekaj shot blocked by Corey Perry
  54. P3 02:39
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alexandre Texier saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  55. P3 02:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
  56. P3 00:19
    Nick Paul credited with hit on Lane Hutson in offensive zone
  57. P3 00:09
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  58. P3 00:09
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  59. P3 00:00
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  60. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  61. P2 19:36
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
  62. P2 19:24
    SHOT
    Power play - Lane Hutson shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  63. P2 19:20
    SHOT
    Power play - Ivan Demidov shot blocked by teammate
  64. P2 18:46
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Ivan Demidov saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  65. P2 17:42
    Dominic James won faceoff against Alex Newhook in defensive zone
  66. P2 16:51
    SHOT
    Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by Mike Matheson
  67. P2 16:26
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  68. P2 16:19
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  69. P2 15:19
    SHOT
    Jayden Struble shot blocked by J.J. Moser
  70. P2 13:51
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  71. P2 13:47
    SHOT
    Zemgus Girgensons shot blocked by Alex Newhook
  72. P2 12:48
    J.J. Moser credited with hit on Ivan Demidov in neutral zone
  73. P2 12:44
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Brandon Hagel assisted by Jake Guentzel and Ryan McDonagh
    1-2
  74. P2 12:15
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  75. P2 12:02
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
  76. P2 11:51
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  77. P2 11:16
    Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
  78. P2 10:55
    Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
  79. P2 10:55
    Penalty to Josh Anderson 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Charle-Edouard D'Astous)
  80. P2 10:43
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
  81. P2 08:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  82. P2 08:10
    Penalty to Yanni Gourde 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Josh Anderson)
  83. P2 08:10
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  84. P2 07:12
    SHOT
    Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
  85. P2 05:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ivan Demidov
  86. P2 04:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Paul
  87. P2 03:56
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  88. P2 03:40
    SHOT
    Jayden Struble shot blocked by teammate
  89. P2 02:51
    Oliver Kapanen won faceoff against Dominic James in offensive zone
  90. P2 02:49
    SHOT
    Cole Caufield shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  91. P2 02:24
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  92. P2 00:39
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Alex Newhook in defensive zone
  93. P2 00:39
    Penalty to Nikita Kucherov 2 minutes for High Sticking (Drawn by Alexandre Carrier)
  94. P2 00:00
    Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Alex Newhook in neutral zone
  95. P1 19:47
    Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  96. P1 18:53
    Stoppage
  97. P1 18:44
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Brayden Point
  98. P1 18:31
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  99. P1 17:42
    Power play - Brandon Hagel won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
  100. P1 17:41
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Jakub Dobes
  101. P1 17:37
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  102. P1 17:37
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  103. P1 15:39
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  104. P1 15:15
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Jakub Dobes
  105. P1 14:46
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jakub Dobes
  106. P1 14:37
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  107. P1 14:37
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  108. P1 13:24
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  109. P1 13:08
    SHOT
    Josh Anderson shot blocked by J.J. Moser
  110. P1 12:39
    SHOT
    Alex Newhook shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
  111. P1 11:59
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  112. P1 11:51
    Power play - Kirby Dach won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  113. P1 11:49
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  114. P1 10:37
    Penalty to Corey Perry 2 minutes for Misconduct
  115. P1 09:06
    SHOT
    Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Phillip Danault
  116. P1 09:02
    Stoppage - Icing
  117. P1 08:24
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zachary Bolduc
  118. P1 06:33
    SHOT
    Jayden Struble shot blocked by Nick Paul
  119. P1 06:29
    Stoppage - Icing
  120. P1 05:00
    SHOT
    Jake Guentzel shot blocked by teammate
  121. P1 04:53
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  122. P1 04:38
    Stoppage - Offside
  123. P1 04:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Jakub Dobes
  124. P1 02:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by Jakub Dobes
  125. P1 02:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
  126. P1 00:37
    SHOT
    Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Lane Hutson
  127. P1 00:12
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  128. P1 00:03
    Giveaway by Lane Hutson in neutral zone
  129. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Canadiens
STATS
Lightning
19Shots on Goal23
61% Faceoff Win % 39%
5/3 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 5/2
14Penalty Infraction Mins14
42Hits44
17 Shots Blocked 10
16Giveaways9
CanadiensMTL
LightningTB
19Shots on Goal23
61% Faceoff Win % 39%
5/3 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 5/2
14Penalty Infraction Mins14
42Hits44
17 Shots Blocked 10
16Giveaways9

Canadiens vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Canadiens vs. Lightning
  • Date: Sunday, April 19, 2026
  • Time: 5:45 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Canadiens +160, Lightning 61¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Canadiens: 40%
  • Lightning: 60%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Canadiens a win probability of 40%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 60%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Canadiens in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Canadiens vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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