Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Islanders NHL game on April 9, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Maple Leafs
3
5
UBS Arena
Islanders
UBS Arena
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
1 1 1 3
Islanders
2 2 1 5
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Maple Leafs
    0%
  • Islanders
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
1 1 1 3
Islanders
2 2 1 5
P3 19:17 Shot missed by Jake McCabe
P3 18:20 Jake McCabe shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
P3 16:50 Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Ilya Sorokin
P3 16:10 Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Ilya Sorokin
P3 14:34 Troy Stecher shot blocked by Max Shabanov
P3 13:22 Shot missed by Jake McCabe
P3 13:04 Max Domi shot blocked by Adam Pelech
P3 12:30 Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Ilya Sorokin
P3 10:58 Power play - Shot missed by Simon Holmstrom
P3 10:17 Power play - Shot on goal by Brayden Schenn saved by Artur Akhtyamov
P3 09:51 Power play - Shot on goal by Mathew Barzal saved by Artur Akhtyamov
P3 08:46 Shot missed by Matthew Knies
P3 08:25 Shot missed by Simon Benoit
P3 07:52 Ryan Pulock shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P3 07:29 William Nylander shot blocked by Tony DeAngelo
P3 07:16 Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
P3 06:16 Shot missed by Luke Haymes
P3 05:45 Shot missed by Carson Soucy
P3 05:13 Troy Stecher shot blocked by teammate
P3 04:41 Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Easton Cowan
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:39
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  3. P3 19:17
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake McCabe
  4. P3 18:22
    John Tavares won faceoff against Brayden Schenn in offensive zone
  5. P3 18:20
    SHOT
    Jake McCabe shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
  6. P3 16:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Ilya Sorokin
  7. P3 16:18
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  8. P3 16:10
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Ilya Sorokin
  9. P3 15:53
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against Luke Haymes in offensive zone
  10. P3 15:53
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches - TV timeout
  11. P3 15:13
    Philippe Myers credited with hit on Marc Gatcomb in defensive zone
  12. P3 14:34
    SHOT
    Troy Stecher shot blocked by Max Shabanov
  13. P3 14:20
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in offensive zone
  14. P3 14:20
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  15. P3 14:04
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in neutral zone
  16. P3 13:56
    Luke Haymes won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in offensive zone
  17. P3 13:22
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake McCabe
  18. P3 13:12
    Max Domi won faceoff against Bo Horvat in offensive zone
  19. P3 13:04
    SHOT
    Max Domi shot blocked by Adam Pelech
  20. P3 12:30
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Ilya Sorokin
  21. P3 12:18
    Stoppage - Icing
  22. P3 10:58
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Simon Holmstrom
  23. P3 10:20
    Power play - Anders Lee won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in neutral zone
  24. P3 10:17
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Brayden Schenn saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  25. P3 09:53
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  26. P3 09:51
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Mathew Barzal saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  27. P3 09:39
    Penalty to Steven Lorentz 2 minutes for Misconduct
  28. P3 09:03
    Calle Jarnkrok won faceoff against Bo Horvat in defensive zone
  29. P3 09:03
    Penalty to Morgan Rielly 2 minutes for Hooking
  30. P3 08:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Knies
  31. P3 08:25
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Simon Benoit
  32. P3 07:52
    SHOT
    Ryan Pulock shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  33. P3 07:35
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  34. P3 07:29
    SHOT
    William Nylander shot blocked by Tony DeAngelo
  35. P3 07:16
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
  36. P3 06:16
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Luke Haymes
  37. P3 05:45
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Carson Soucy
  38. P3 05:13
    SHOT
    Troy Stecher shot blocked by teammate
  39. P3 04:41
    SHOT
    Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Easton Cowan
  40. P3 03:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brayden Schenn
  41. P3 02:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Troy Stecher
  42. P3 01:32
    Jake McCabe credited with hit on Emil Heineman in defensive zone
  43. P3 01:26
    Stoppage - Icing
  44. P3 01:15
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Max Domi in offensive zone
  45. P3 01:15
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  46. P3 01:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Shabanov saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  47. P3 00:53
    SHOT
    Troy Stecher shot blocked by teammate
  48. P3 00:38
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Calle Jarnkrok
  49. P3 00:00
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
  50. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  51. P2 19:29
    John Tavares won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in defensive zone
  52. P2 19:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Calum Ritchie
  53. P2 19:04
    SHOT
    Adam Pelech shot blocked by Jacob Quillan
  54. P2 17:48
    Power play - Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in neutral zone
  55. P2 17:45
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Matthew Schaefer saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  56. P2 17:35
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  57. P2 17:11
    Shorthanded - Steven Lorentz won faceoff against Bo Horvat in defensive zone
  58. P2 17:09
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Brayden Schenn saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  59. P2 17:01
    Penalty to Nicholas Robertson 2 minutes for Hooking (Drawn by Adam Pelech)
  60. P2 16:44
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Emil Heineman assisted by Mathew Barzal and Tony DeAngelo
    2-4
  61. P2 16:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Emil Heineman
  62. P2 15:08
    SHOT
    Philippe Myers shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
  63. P2 15:04
    Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson
  64. P2 14:32
    SHOT
    Emil Heineman shot blocked by Simon Benoit
  65. P2 14:26
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Islanders in neutral zone
  66. P2 14:25
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  67. P2 13:46
    Max Domi won faceoff against Bo Horvat in defensive zone
  68. P2 13:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Ilya Sorokin
  69. P2 12:50
    SHOT
    Jacob Quillan shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
  70. P2 12:00
    SHOT
    William Nylander shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
  71. P2 11:00
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in offensive zone
  72. P2 10:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Ilya Sorokin
  73. P2 09:39
    Max Domi won faceoff against Marc Gatcomb in neutral zone
  74. P2 09:39
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Matthew Schaefer assisted by Tony DeAngelo and Ondrej Palat
    2-3
  75. P2 09:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Simon Benoit saved by Ilya Sorokin
  76. P2 07:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mathew Barzal saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  77. P2 07:44
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Islanders in defensive zone
  78. P2 07:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bo Horvat
  79. P2 07:33
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Simon Holmstrom
  80. P2 07:15
    John Tavares won faceoff against Anders Lee in defensive zone
  81. P2 07:13
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matthew Schaefer saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  82. P2 07:10
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  83. P2 06:52
    William Nylander won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in neutral zone
  84. P2 06:52
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
  85. P2 05:16
    Stoppage - Offside
  86. P2 03:33
    Marc Gatcomb credited with hit on Troy Stecher in offensive zone
  87. P2 03:05
    SHOT
    Brayden Schenn shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  88. P2 03:04
    SHOT
    Scott Mayfield shot blocked by teammate
  89. P2 02:49
    Stoppage - Icing
  90. P2 01:57
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against Luke Haymes in neutral zone
  91. P2 01:46
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Ilya Sorokin
  92. P2 01:30
    Shorthanded - Giveaway by Ryan Pulock in defensive zone
  93. P2 00:36
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in offensive zone
  94. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  95. P1 19:52
    Power play - Bo Horvat won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in neutral zone
  96. P1 19:51
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  97. P1 19:48
    Steven Lorentz won faceoff against Bo Horvat in defensive zone
  98. P1 19:47
    Shorthanded - Steven Lorentz won faceoff against Bo Horvat in defensive zone
  99. P1 19:42
    SHOT
    Power play - Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  100. P1 19:20
    Stoppage - Offside
  101. P1 18:50
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Islanders in neutral zone
  102. P1 18:17
    Giveaway by Tony DeAngelo in defensive zone
  103. P1 18:07
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  104. P1 17:52
    Giveaway by Morgan Rielly in defensive zone
  105. P1 16:11
    Max Domi won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in defensive zone
  106. P1 15:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tony DeAngelo
  107. P1 15:50
    Stoppage - Icing
  108. P1 15:17
    Takeaway by Ryan Pulock in neutral zone
  109. P1 14:58
    Jacob Quillan credited with hit on Tony DeAngelo in offensive zone
  110. P1 14:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tony DeAngelo saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  111. P1 14:40
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  112. P1 14:34
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against Calle Jarnkrok in offensive zone
  113. P1 14:34
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  114. P1 14:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Scott Mayfield
  115. P1 13:27
    SHOT
    Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  116. P1 13:04
    Brayden Schenn won faceoff against William Nylander in offensive zone
  117. P1 13:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Calum Ritchie saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  118. P1 12:44
    John Tavares won faceoff against Brayden Schenn in defensive zone
  119. P1 12:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Adam Pelech saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  120. P1 12:07
    Max Domi won faceoff against Bo Horvat in defensive zone
  121. P1 12:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Marc Gatcomb saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  122. P1 11:16
    Giveaway by Emil Heineman in defensive zone
  123. P1 11:11
    Michael Pezzetta credited with hit on Carson Soucy in offensive zone
  124. P1 10:53
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  125. P1 10:20
    Brayden Schenn won faceoff against Luke Haymes in defensive zone
  126. P1 10:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Steven Lorentz saved by Ilya Sorokin
  127. P1 10:12
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  128. P1 10:10
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Ilya Sorokin
  129. P1 09:25
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in defensive zone
  130. P1 09:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Marc Gatcomb
  131. P1 09:00
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Islanders in neutral zone
  132. P1 08:17
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Max Domi
  133. P1 07:56
    SHOT
    Matias Maccelli shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
  134. P1 07:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Adam Pelech
  135. P1 06:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anders Lee saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  136. P1 06:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anders Lee
  137. P1 05:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Casey Cizikas saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  138. P1 05:11
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Luke Haymes in neutral zone
  139. P1 04:55
    Luke Haymes won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in neutral zone
  140. P1 04:55
    Emil Heineman won faceoff against Luke Haymes in neutral zone
  141. P1 04:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jean-Gabriel Pageau
  142. P1 04:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Adam Pelech saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  143. P1 04:47
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  144. P1 04:22
    Max Domi won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in defensive zone
  145. P1 04:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  146. P1 04:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bo Horvat saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  147. P1 03:38
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  148. P1 02:39
    Max Shabanov credited with hit on Simon Benoit in defensive zone
  149. P1 02:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Steven Lorentz
  150. P1 02:08
    Luke Haymes won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in neutral zone
  151. P1 02:06
    SHOT
    Bo Horvat shot blocked by teammate
  152. P1 01:17
    Giveaway by Matthew Schaefer in defensive zone
  153. P1 01:04
    Stoppage - Icing
  154. P1 00:42
    Giveaway by John Tavares in defensive zone
  155. P1 00:35
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  156. P1 00:33
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  157. P1 00:24
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  158. P1 00:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Casey Cizikas saved by Artur Akhtyamov
  159. P1 00:00
    Max Domi won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in neutral zone
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Islanders
16Shots on Goal44
46% Faceoff Win % 54%
1/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 5/2
20Penalty Infraction Mins2
21Hits24
13 Shots Blocked 11
12Giveaways16
Maple LeafsTOR
IslandersNYI
16Shots on Goal44
46% Faceoff Win % 54%
1/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 5/2
20Penalty Infraction Mins2
21Hits24
13 Shots Blocked 11
12Giveaways16

Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Islanders
  • Date: Thursday, April 9, 2026
  • Time: 6:45 PM ET
  • Venue: UBS Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Islanders favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs 28¢, Islanders 72¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 37%
  • Islanders: 63%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 37%, while the Islanders have a win probability of 63%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Islanders are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at UBS Arena on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Islanders predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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