Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs NHL game on January 21, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Red Wings
2
1
Scotiabank Arena
Maple Leafs
Scotiabank Arena
TEAM123OTT
Red Wings
1 0 0 1 2
Maple Leafs
1 0 0 0 1
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Red Wings
    100%
  • Maple Leafs
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123OTT
Red Wings
1 0 0 1 2
Maple Leafs
1 0 0 0 1
OT1 03:07 Shot on goal by Dylan Larkin saved by Joseph Woll
OT1 02:21 Shot missed by Auston Matthews
OT1 01:57 Shot missed by Simon Edvinsson
OT1 01:34 Shot on goal by Alex DeBrincat saved by Joseph Woll
OT1 00:42 Shot on goal by Dylan Larkin saved by Joseph Woll
OT1 00:21 Shot on goal by Lucas Raymond saved by Joseph Woll
P3 18:41 Shot missed by Michael Rasmussen
P3 18:29 Shot missed by Simon Edvinsson
P3 17:44 Shot missed by Alex DeBrincat
P3 16:27 Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by John Gibson
P3 14:25 Shot on goal by Michael Rasmussen saved by Joseph Woll
P3 13:36 Shot missed by Moritz Seider
P3 11:27 Shot missed by Ben Chiarot
P3 10:58 Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
P3 10:14 Shot on goal by Dylan Larkin saved by Joseph Woll
P3 09:57 Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by John Gibson
P3 08:47 Elmer Soderblom shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P3 06:45 Shot on goal by Axel Sandin-Pellikka saved by Joseph Woll
P3 06:11 Shot on goal by Andrew Copp saved by Joseph Woll
P3 04:45 Shot missed by James van Riemsdyk
Play by Play
  1. OT1 05:00
    End of 1st OT.
  2. OT1 03:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dylan Larkin saved by Joseph Woll
  3. OT1 02:56
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  4. OT1 02:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  5. OT1 01:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Simon Edvinsson
  6. OT1 01:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex DeBrincat saved by Joseph Woll
  7. OT1 00:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dylan Larkin saved by Joseph Woll
  8. OT1 00:24
    Dylan Larkin won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  9. OT1 00:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lucas Raymond saved by Joseph Woll
  10. OT1 00:00
    Dylan Larkin won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
  11. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  12. P3 19:19
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  13. P3 19:02
    Red Wings won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
  14. P3 18:41
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Michael Rasmussen
  15. P3 18:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Simon Edvinsson
  16. P3 18:27
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  17. P3 17:54
    John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Larkin in defensive zone
  18. P3 17:44
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alex DeBrincat
  19. P3 17:01
    Michael Rasmussen won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  20. P3 16:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by John Gibson
  21. P3 15:34
    Dylan Larkin won faceoff against Matthew Knies in defensive zone
  22. P3 15:34
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  23. P3 15:25
    Red Wings won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  24. P3 14:27
    Andrew Copp won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  25. P3 14:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Michael Rasmussen saved by Joseph Woll
  26. P3 13:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Moritz Seider
  27. P3 12:52
    Jake McCabe credited with hit on Dylan Larkin in defensive zone
  28. P3 12:46
    Dylan Larkin won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in neutral zone
  29. P3 11:27
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ben Chiarot
  30. P3 11:12
    Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson - Official Injury
  31. P3 11:04
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against J.T. Compher in neutral zone
  32. P3 10:58
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
  33. P3 10:33
    Matthew Knies credited with hit on Marco Kasper in neutral zone
  34. P3 10:16
    Moritz Seider won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  35. P3 10:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dylan Larkin saved by Joseph Woll
  36. P3 09:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by John Gibson
  37. P3 08:47
    SHOT
    Elmer Soderblom shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  38. P3 08:08
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  39. P3 07:04
    Jake McCabe credited with hit on Lucas Raymond in defensive zone
  40. P3 06:56
    John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Larkin in defensive zone
  41. P3 06:56
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  42. P3 06:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Axel Sandin-Pellikka saved by Joseph Woll
  43. P3 06:13
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Andrew Copp in defensive zone
  44. P3 06:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Andrew Copp saved by Joseph Woll
  45. P3 05:19
    Giveaway by Simon Benoit in defensive zone
  46. P3 05:08
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  47. P3 04:45
    SHOT
    Shot missed by James van Riemsdyk
  48. P3 04:15
    Stoppage - Icing
  49. P3 04:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Marco Kasper saved by Joseph Woll
  50. P3 03:44
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Lucas Raymond
  51. P3 02:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ben Chiarot saved by Joseph Woll
  52. P3 02:46
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  53. P3 02:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Elmer Soderblom saved by Joseph Woll
  54. P3 02:08
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Moritz Seider
  55. P3 01:33
    J.T. Compher won faceoff against Matias Maccelli in defensive zone
  56. P3 01:24
    John Tavares won faceoff against J.T. Compher in defensive zone
  57. P3 00:24
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Carlo
  58. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  59. P2 19:40
    SHOT
    Jake McCabe shot blocked by Dylan Larkin
  60. P2 19:13
    SHOT
    Moritz Seider shot blocked by Auston Matthews
  61. P2 19:09
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Dylan Larkin in defensive zone
  62. P2 19:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Moritz Seider
  63. P2 19:03
    Dylan Larkin won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  64. P2 19:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex DeBrincat saved by Joseph Woll
  65. P2 18:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex DeBrincat saved by Joseph Woll
  66. P2 18:45
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  67. P2 18:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by John Gibson
  68. P2 18:29
    Red Wings won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  69. P2 17:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dylan Larkin saved by Joseph Woll
  70. P2 16:41
    Michael Rasmussen won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  71. P2 16:41
    Penalty to Red Wings 0 minutes for Interference on breakaway (Penalty Shot) (Drawn by Scott Laughton) (Served by Simon Edvinsson)
  72. P2 14:49
    Power play - Dylan Larkin won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  73. P2 14:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Albert Johansson saved by Joseph Woll
  74. P2 13:31
    SHOT
    Mason Appleton shot blocked by Troy Stecher
  75. P2 13:00
    Giveaway by Lucas Raymond in neutral zone
  76. P2 12:02
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bobby McMann
  77. P2 12:00
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Dylan Larkin in offensive zone
  78. P2 11:55
    Red Wings won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  79. P2 11:17
    Shorthanded - Takeaway by Albert Johansson in defensive zone
  80. P2 10:51
    Shorthanded - Andrew Copp won faceoff against Max Domi in defensive zone
  81. P2 10:51
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  82. P2 10:50
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by John Gibson
  83. P2 10:27
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  84. P2 10:19
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by John Gibson
  85. P2 09:31
    Penalty to James van Riemsdyk 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Matias Maccelli)
  86. P2 09:26
    J.T. Compher won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
  87. P2 09:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by John Gibson
  88. P2 08:13
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Dylan Larkin in offensive zone
  89. P2 08:13
    Stoppage
  90. P2 07:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by John Gibson
  91. P2 06:21
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by John Gibson
  92. P2 06:08
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by John Gibson
  93. P2 05:51
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by John Gibson
  94. P2 04:59
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  95. P2 04:58
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by John Gibson
  96. P2 04:28
    Penalty to Jacob Bernard-Docker 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Bobby McMann)
  97. P2 04:21
    Giveaway by Andrew Copp in offensive zone
  98. P2 03:59
    Stoppage - Icing
  99. P2 03:55
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Red Wings
  100. P2 03:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Simon Edvinsson saved by Joseph Woll
  101. P2 03:04
    SHOT
    Easton Cowan shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson
  102. P2 02:23
    Giveaway by John Gibson in defensive zone
  103. P2 01:58
    SHOT
    Matias Maccelli shot blocked by Albert Johansson
  104. P2 01:43
    J.T. Compher won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
  105. P2 01:43
    Stoppage - Hand Pass
  106. P2 01:34
    Stoppage - Icing
  107. P2 01:27
    SHOT
    Troy Stecher shot blocked by Dylan Larkin
  108. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  109. P1 19:56
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by John Gibson
  110. P1 19:42
    John Tavares won faceoff against Michael Rasmussen in neutral zone
  111. P1 19:30
    Red Wings won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  112. P1 19:29
    Marco Kasper won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  113. P1 19:10
    SHOT
    Albert Johansson shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  114. P1 19:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Andrew Copp
  115. P1 17:53
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Michael Rasmussen in defensive zone
  116. P1 17:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nicolas Roy
  117. P1 17:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by James van Riemsdyk saved by Joseph Woll
  118. P1 16:25
    John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Larkin in neutral zone
  119. P1 16:25
    Stoppage - Offside
  120. P1 15:22
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  121. P1 15:08
    Andrew Copp won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  122. P1 15:03
    Andrew Copp won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  123. P1 14:52
    SHOT
    Max Domi shot blocked by Moritz Seider
  124. P1 14:48
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Michael Rasmussen in offensive zone
  125. P1 14:35
    SHOT
    Troy Stecher shot blocked by Michael Rasmussen
  126. P1 14:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nicolas Roy
  127. P1 13:56
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by John Gibson
  128. P1 13:47
    Giveaway by Emmitt Finnie in neutral zone
  129. P1 12:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ben Chiarot saved by Joseph Woll
  130. P1 12:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Patrick Kane saved by Joseph Woll
  131. P1 11:15
    Giveaway by John Tavares in neutral zone
  132. P1 11:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Elmer Soderblom saved by Joseph Woll
  133. P1 10:24
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
  134. P1 09:19
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Larkin in offensive zone
  135. P1 09:19
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  136. P1 07:53
    Michael Rasmussen won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  137. P1 07:36
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by J.T. Compher saved by Joseph Woll
  138. P1 07:34
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Marco Kasper
  139. P1 06:32
    Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Andrew Copp in defensive zone
  140. P1 06:29
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Alex DeBrincat saved by Joseph Woll
  141. P1 06:03
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by John Gibson
  142. P1 05:37
    Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Larkin in defensive zone
  143. P1 05:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Michael Rasmussen saved by Joseph Woll
  144. P1 04:46
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Michael Rasmussen in neutral zone
  145. P1 03:57
    Stoppage - Icing
  146. P1 03:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  147. P1 03:24
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  148. P1 03:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by John Gibson
  149. P1 02:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jacob Bernard-Docker saved by Joseph Woll
  150. P1 02:40
    Andrew Copp won faceoff against Nicholas Robertson in neutral zone
  151. P1 02:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Elmer Soderblom saved by Joseph Woll
  152. P1 01:29
    John Tavares won faceoff against J.T. Compher in neutral zone
  153. P1 01:29
    Stoppage - Offside
  154. P1 01:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by John Gibson
  155. P1 01:17
    John Tavares won faceoff against J.T. Compher in offensive zone
  156. P1 01:15
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  157. P1 00:50
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dylan Larkin
  158. P1 00:05
    Giveaway by Alex DeBrincat in neutral zone
  159. P1 00:00
    Andrew Copp won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
Stats
Red Wings
STATS
Maple Leafs
41Shots on Goal31
49% Faceoff Win % 51%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins4
15Hits22
12 Shots Blocked 16
16Giveaways16
Red WingsDET
Maple LeafsTOR
41Shots on Goal31
49% Faceoff Win % 51%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins4
15Hits22
12 Shots Blocked 16
16Giveaways16

Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs
  • Date: Wednesday, January 21, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Maple Leafs favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Red Wings +105, Maple Leafs -120

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Red Wings: 46%
  • Maple Leafs: 54%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Red Wings a win probability of 46%, while the Maple Leafs have a win probability of 54%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Maple Leafs are more likely to beat the Red Wings in the NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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