Sep 9, 2026
Patriots vs. Seahawks prediction favors Seattle to win in NFL Week 1 [2026]
Read Article Ranking every player's chances of a Touchdown in Patriots vs. Seahawks tonight
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Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Dave Garofolo
Who scores tonight in Patriots vs. Seahawks? Every player ranked by touchdown odds, plus the single best-value prop on the board.
The NFL doesn't usually hand you a script this good for a season opener. Tonight at Lumen Field, the Seattle Seahawks raise their championship banner and immediately turn around to host the New England Patriots, the same team they beat 29-13 in Super Bowl LX back in February. It's only the third time in league history the two Super Bowl participants have run it back in Week 1, and with Drake Maye, Sam Darnold, A.J. Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp all on the field, there's no shortage of players who could find the end zone.
Using NFL touchdown projections built from full-season simulation models, we ranked every skill-position player involved tonight by their probability of scoring 1, 2, or even 3 touchdowns, plus their likelihood of scoring the game's first TD. These are the same NFL player projections Dimers Pro subscribers use to shop for value across sportsbooks, and tonight's slate is a good example of why that matters: the model and the market don't always agree.
How to read the numbers
Every player below has four numbers attached to them:
- 1+ TD: the probability they score at least one touchdown
- 2+ TD: the probability they score at least two
- 3+ TD: the probability they score a hat trick
- 1st TD: the probability they're the one who opens the scoring
Ranked in order of 1+ TD probability, here's the full board.
Tier 1: The 4 players most likely to score a TD
| Player | Team | 1+ TD | 2+ TD | 3+ TD | 1st TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 46.43% | 12.99% | 2.56% | 10.85% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 39.41% | 9.05% | 1.45% | 9.69% |
| A.J. Brown | NE | 37.78% | 8.25% | 1.25% | 8.24% |
| Jadarian Price | SEA | 36.70% | 7.75% | 1.14% | 8.84% |
Rhamondre Stevenson tops every list on the board. Nearly a coin flip on scoring at least one, and a 13% shot at a multi-touchdown night makes him the single most likely player on the field to find paydirt. Right behind him, Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects as Seattle's clearest touchdown threat after last season's breakout, while A.J. Brown and Jadarian Price round out a group that's separated from the rest of the field by a wide margin. Any serious Patriots vs. Seahawks prediction starts with these four names.
Tier 2: 6 strong secondary options
| Player | Team | 1+ TD | 2+ TD | 3+ TD | 1st TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Holani | SEA | 28.06% | 4.37% | 0.47% | 6.37% |
| AJ Barner | SEA | 25.09% | 3.45% | 0.32% | 5.59% |
| Romeo Doubs | NE | 24.42% | 3.26% | 0.30% | 4.87% |
| Hunter Henry | NE | 23.98% | 3.14% | 0.28% | 4.76% |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | 23.42% | 2.99% | 0.26% | 5.16% |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA | 22.66% | 2.79% | 0.23% | 4.97% |
This group is where things get interesting for anyone building NFL parlays around the game. George Holani leads it as Seattle's projected passing-down and goal-line complement, and both tight ends, AJ Barner and Hunter Henry, carry real red-zone equity. Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed sit almost identically valued, a reminder that Seattle's passing attack is genuinely multi-pronged rather than a single-target operation.
Tier 3: The 6 guys in the middle of the pack
| Player | Team | 1+ TD | 2+ TD | 3+ TD | 1st TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | NE | 17.66% | 1.66% | 0.11% | 3.38% |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 12.64% | 0.83% | 0.04% | 2.61% |
| DeMario Douglas | NE | 12.58% | 0.83% | 0.04% | 2.34% |
| Corey Kiner | NE | 11.96% | 0.75% | 0.03% | 2.21% |
| Elijah Arroyo | SEA | 11.00% | 0.63% | 0.02% | 2.25% |
| Tory Horton | SEA | 10.57% | 0.58% | 0.02% | 2.16% |
Note that Drake Maye's number here reflects him scoring on the ground or through a trick-play catch, not his passing touchdowns, which is a separate market entirely (more on that below). Behind him, this tier is mostly rotational backs, depth receivers, and rookie tight ends who need the game script to break their way to find the end zone.
Tier 4: 6 Touchdown scorer longshots
| Player | Team | 1+ TD | 2+ TD | 3+ TD | 1st TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Raridon | NE | 9.35% | 0.45% | 0.01% | 1.71% |
| Mack Hollins | NE | 9.08% | 0.43% | 0.01% | 1.65% |
| Sam Darnold (rush/rec) | SEA | 8.78% | 0.40% | 0.01% | 1.78% |
| Kyle Williams | NE | 4.09% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.73% |
| Efton Chism | NE | 3.56% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.63% |
| Eric Saubert | SEA | 2.43% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.48% |
None of these names are unplayable in a deep prop pool or a same-game parlay leg, but they're low-probability outcomes that need the game to open up significantly to hit.
Where tonight's actual TD betting value is
BET: Drake Maye Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Here's the part that matters if you're planning to bet the game. We ran every one of the anytime-touchdown probabilities above against the current lines posted across all the major sportsbooks, and, outside of this specific market, our model couldn't find an edge anywhere on the list. The TD scorer odds are simply too short.
The one exception sits in a different market entirely: Drake Maye Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. Our model has that at a 44.9% probability to hit, and against the best odds currently available (+150), that works out to roughly a 4.9% edge over the sportsbook's own implied price, by a clear margin, the single best-graded NFL best bets angle on the board tonight.
On a marquee, high-attention game like a Super Bowl rematch season opener, books are pricing the anytime-scorer market tight enough that even the players most likely to score, like Stevenson and Smith-Njigba, aren't paying out enough relative to their true odds to represent value.
It's a good illustration of the gap between "likely to happen" and "worth betting," the NFL player props market and the probability model don't move together, especially on a night this heavily bet. This is exactly why the Dimers Pro football season pass is the smartest betting subscription option out there.
The bottom line
If you're building a same-game parlay, the top of the anytime-TD board, Stevenson, Smith-Njigba, Brown, and Price, is where the model has the most confidence in a score actually happening, even if the sportsbook pricing on those legs doesn't currently offer an edge. If you're looking for where the number and the model actually disagree in your favor, it's not on the anytime-scorer list at all, it's Maye's passing touchdown total. That gap between what's likely to happen and what's good value to bet is exactly why raw NFL predictions and priced betting value aren't the same question, and it's worth checking both before you build tonight's card.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Dave Garofolo through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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