Derrick Henry returns to face Titans: Dimers model projects 92.9 yards, 30% chance of 2+ TDs

For the first time since he left Nashville, RB Derrick Henry lines up against his former franchise when the Baltimore Ravens host the Tennessee Titans at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET, and the only way this reunion could be more intense is if it were in Tennessee.

The Ravens (2-1) are coming off a last-second 34-31 win over the Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro, in which Henry found the end zone twice for his second multi-score game of the young season.

The Titans (0-3) have scored just 37 points all season. Dimers' NFL predictions make Baltimore the biggest favorite of Week 4, and Henry sits near the top of our NFL player projections, ready to capitalize.

Derrick Henry's Titans legacy

Henry spent eight seasons in Tennessee (2016-2023) and became one of the best players in franchise history.

He left as the Titans' all-time leader in rushing touchdowns with 90, and his 9,502 rushing yards trail only Eddie George (10,009) in franchise history.

His 2,027-yard season in 2020 won him Offensive Player of the Year and made him just the eighth running back to top 2,000 yards.

Tennessee's run game hasn't been the same since he left. The Titans' 3,715 rushing yards since the start of 2024 rank fourth-worst in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Henry has been every bit the player Baltimore paid for. In 2024 he ran for 1,921 yards, second in the league, and tied for the NFL lead with 16 rushing touchdowns; he followed that with 1,595 yards and another 16 touchdowns in 2025, then signed a two-year, $30 million extension.

At 32, he's showing no signs of slowing down. Through three games, he has 301 rushing yards and six touchdowns, including two scores against Dallas last week, and a third was taken away when replay ruled him down at the 1-yard line.

Could he be in line for yet another multi-score game this week?

Derrick Henry Week 4 projections vs. Titans

Tennessee's run defense has struggled. The Titans have allowed 379 rushing yards (24th in the NFL) and three rushing touchdowns through three games.

Henry ranks 2nd in nearly every rushing category in Week 4.

Dimers' NFL Player Projections have Henry as the most likely first touchdown scorer in all of Week 4 at 19.6%. He also ranks second across the entire week in each of these categories:

• 92.9 rushing yards
• 66% chance to score a touchdown
• 30.0% chance of 2+ touchdowns
• 9.9% chance of 3+ touchdowns

With a big lead expected, Baltimore should give Henry plenty of carries, and that's a bad sign for a Titans defense that already struggles against the run.

Derrick Henry props vs. Titans in Week 4

Henry will undoubtedly be one of the more popular players to bet on this week given the narrative around his game, but doesn't carry much value to score a touchdown at -220 odds.

Here are some other markets where Henry carries more appealing odds:

Derrick Henry 1st touchdown (+300) - Henry is the most likely player to score first all week

Derrick Henry Anytime 1st Quarter TD scorer (+340) - a similar market to First TD but at slightly longer odds, giving you a chance if Henry doesn't score first, but limiting the window to only the 1st quarter

Derrick Henry 100+ rushing yards (+108) - slightly over our model's projection of 92.9

Derrick Henry 1st Quarter Rushing Yards - a market for those who think Baltimore leans on Henry early in a potential blowout, ranging from O/U 21.5 at -115 to 55+ at +880.

Bet on NFL Week 4 with Dimers Pro

Get Dimers' full player projections, touchdown probabilities and best bets for every Week 4 game, including edges on player props for Henry and more, with Dimers Pro.