Bijan Robinson vs. Brian Robinson: Comparing their NFL Week 5 projections

Brian Robinson Jr. ran for three touchdowns in the Atlanta Falcons' 45-24 win over the New Orleans Saints on Monday night, yet Dimers' Week 5 projections still have Bijan Robinson in clear control of the backfield for Sunday's game against the Baltimore Ravens. Our model gives Bijan a 64.5% chance to score at least one touchdown against Baltimore, compared with 22.8% for Brian. Bijan is projected for 92.5 rushing yards, Brian for 25.2. The Falcons (2-2) host the Ravens (3-1) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday Night Football, with kickoff at 8.20pm ET on NBC and Peacock. Brian enters the week with double-digit carries in three straight games. The projections make a repeat of Monday unlikely, and they still leave him a real path to the end zone.

The full numbers for both backs, and the rest of the league, are on Dimers' NFL player projections for Week 5.

What Brian Robinson did against the Saints

Brian carried 14 times for 62 yards and three touchdowns and caught his only target for 5 yards. His scores came on runs of 4, 8, and 11 yards, one in each of the last three quarters, after Bijan's two first-quarter touchdowns put Atlanta up 14-0.

It was the first three-touchdown rushing game of Brian's career. As Dimers reported he became the first nonstarter to rush for three touchdowns in a game since Baltimore's Gus Edwards in 2023, and the first Falcons running back with three touchdowns in a game since Devonta Freeman in 2016.

Bijan still led the backfield. He finished with 145 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries, opening the scoring with a 59-yard run on Atlanta's third play. The Falcons led 24-7 at halftime, so most of Brian's work came with the game already in hand.

The usage trend is real. Brian has logged double-digit carries and at least 50 rushing yards in each of his last three games.

Bijan vs. Brian: Dimers' Week 5 projections

Dimers' projections for Ravens vs. Falcons, last updated Oct. 6 at 7:38 a.m. ET:

The gap shows up in every column. Bijan's chance of scoring twice (27.8%) is higher than Brian's chance of scoring once (22.8%). Bijan also projects for more than four times as many fantasy points in PPR formats, with 3.7 catches for 28.1 yards adding to his rushing workload.

A second straight three-touchdown night sits at 0.2% for Brian in our model, roughly a 1-in-500 outcome. Bijan's chance at a three-score game is 8.7%.

In the first touchdown market, Bijan comes in at 18.9% and Brian at 4.7%. Our NFL touchdown scorer props compare those probabilities with the best available prices.

Can Brian Robinson challenge for the Falcons RB1 role?

The projections say not this week. A 22.8% touchdown chance still means Brian scores in a little better than one game in five under these numbers, so another trip to the end zone can't be ruled out.

Game script is the swing factor. Monday's 21-point margin let Atlanta keep handing the ball to its backup in the second half. A tighter game would likely send more of those late carries back to Bijan, which is our read rather than a team statement.

Baltimore's quarterback situation could shape that script. Lamar Jackson left last week's game with an ankle injury and is day-to-day. The Falcons are also on a short week after playing Monday. Our models refresh daily with the latest injuries and news, so the backfield numbers can move once Jackson's status is clear. Check Dimers' NFL predictions closer to kickoff for the latest.

Dimers Pro includes unlimited player projections, so you can see every Falcons and Ravens prediction for Sunday night alongside best bets and props for the full Week 5 slate. See what Dimers Pro includes; you can cancel or pause anytime.

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