May 22, 2026
Best WNBA bets today: Friday's picks include Wings vs. Dream play [5/22/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, May 22, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/22.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, May 22, 2026—are live with the Mavericks' Paige Bueckers projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Bueckers, Brittney Griner and Kelsey Mitchell lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 22, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 14.7% |
| Brittney Griner (Sun) | 14.6% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 14.3% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 12.4% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 12.4% |
| Janelle Salaun (Valkyries) | 12.0% |
| Rhyne Howard (Dream) | 11.8% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 11.4% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 11.2% |
| Azzi Fudd (Wings) | 10.7% |
| Hailey Van Lith (Sun) | 10.6% |
| Jade Melbourne (Storm) | 10.5% |
| Gabby Williams (Valkyries) | 10.3% |
| Aneesah Morrow (Sun) | 10.1% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 10.0% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 9.9% |
| Kayla Thornton (Valkyries) | 9.7% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 9.5% |
| Veronica Burton (Valkyries) | 9.1% |
| Tiffany Hayes (Valkyries) | 9.0% |
| Saniya Rivers (Sun) | 8.7% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 8.6% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 8.3% |
| Lexie Brown (Storm) | 8.3% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 7.7% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 7.5% |
| Stefanie Dolson (Storm) | 7.5% |
| Monique Billings (Fever) | 6.9% |
| Alanna Smith (Wings) | 6.5% |
| Kennedy Burke (Sun) | 6.0% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 22, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 3.3% | +1000 | 12.4% |
| Kelsey Mitchell | Fever | 3.2% | +800 | 14.3% |
| Gabby Williams | Valkyries | 0.7% | +950 | 10.3% |
| Hailey Van Lith | Sun | 0.6% | +900 | 10.6% |
| Paige Bueckers | Wings | 0.4% | +600 | 14.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/22.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, May 22, 2026, Paige Bueckers, Brittney Griner and Kelsey Mitchell lead our first basket projections, while Natisha Hiedeman shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
$0 for 3 days
then $14.99/week
Already a Pro member? Log in
New here? See everything Pro includes
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
Advertiser disclosure
