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Read Article Vilius Gaubas vs. Sebastian Baez prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get Gaubas vs Baez predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Vilius Gaubas will face Sebastian Baez in the round of 128 at the ATP Madrid event on Thursday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Sebastian Baez as the most likely winner of the Gaubas vs. Baez match.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Gaubas vs. Baez prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Gaubas-Baez men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives Baez a 70% chance of defeating Gaubas at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Vilius Gaubas vs. Sebastian Baez odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Gaubas | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +220 | -226 |
| Game Spread | +3.5 (+102) | -3.5 (-134) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-118) | u21.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Gaubas vs. Baez picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baez | -226 |
| First Set | Baez | -118 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Sebastian Baez to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Gaubas vs. Baez updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Vilius Gaubas and Sebastian Baez is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 9:00 AM ET.
- Who: Vilius Gaubas vs. Sebastian Baez
- Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026
- Approx. Time: 9:00 AM ET/6:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Sebastian Baez, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat Vilius Gaubas at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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