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Vilius Gaubas vs. Sebastian Baez prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Gaubas vs Baez predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Vilius Gaubas will take on Sebastian Baez in the round of 128 at the ATP Madrid event on Thursday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Sebastian Baez as the most likely winner of the Gaubas vs. Baez match.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Gaubas vs. Baez prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Gaubas-Baez men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Baez a 67% chance of winning against Gaubas at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Vilius Gaubas vs. Sebastian Baez odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Gaubas | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +205 | -226 |
| Game Spread | +3.5 (-108) | -3.5 (-126) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-118) | u21.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Gaubas vs. Baez picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gaubas | +205 |
| First Set | Baez | -118 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Vilius Gaubas to win.
Although Gaubas is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Gaubas vs. Baez updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Vilius Gaubas and Sebastian Baez is scheduled to start on Thursday at 4:00 AM ET.
- Who: Vilius Gaubas vs. Sebastian Baez
- Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026
- Approx. Time: 4:00 AM ET/1:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Sebastian Baez, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat Vilius Gaubas at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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