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Read Article Rafael Jodar vs. Jesper De Jong prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Jodar vs De Jong predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Rafael Jodar will square off with Jesper De Jong in the round of 128 at the ATP Madrid event on Wednesday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Rafael Jodar as the most likely winner of the Jodar vs. De Jong match.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Jodar vs. De Jong prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's Jodar-De Jong men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Jodar an 81% chance of winning against De Jong at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Jodar has a 76% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Jodar (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 21.5 games has a 57% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Rafael Jodar vs. Jesper De Jong odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Jodar | De Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -625 | +443 |
| First Set | -357 | +275 |
| Game Spread | -4.5 (-118) | +4.5 (-112) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-106) | u21.5 (-126) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Jodar vs. De Jong picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | De Jong | +443 |
| First Set | De Jong | -126 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 21.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Jodar vs. De Jong updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Rafael Jodar and Jesper De Jong is scheduled to commence on Wednesday at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Rafael Jodar vs. Jesper De Jong
- Date: Wednesday, April 22, 2026
- Approx. Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Rafael Jodar, with an 81% win probability, will likely beat Jesper De Jong at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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