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Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs. Daniil Medvedev prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Llamas Ruiz vs Medvedev predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Pablo Llamas Ruiz will square off with Daniil Medvedev in the round of 32 at the ATP Rome event on Monday.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Daniil Medvedev as the most likely winner of the Llamas Ruiz vs. Medvedev match.
This article offers further insights into Monday's match, including best bets and picks.
Llamas Ruiz vs. Medvedev prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's Llamas Ruiz-Medvedev men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives Medvedev a 63% chance of winning against Llamas Ruiz at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Medvedev has a 60% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Llamas Ruiz (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 21.5 games has a 54% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs. Daniil Medvedev odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Llamas Ruiz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +195 | -215 |
| First Set | +150 | -189 |
| Game Spread | +3.5 (-118) | -3.5 (-112) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-126) | u21.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Llamas Ruiz vs. Medvedev picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Llamas Ruiz | +195 |
| First Set | Medvedev | -126 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Pablo Llamas Ruiz to win.
Although Llamas Ruiz is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Llamas Ruiz vs. Medvedev updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Pablo Llamas Ruiz and Daniil Medvedev is scheduled to begin on Monday at 11:00 AM ET.
- Who: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs. Daniil Medvedev
- Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
- Approx. Time: 11:00 AM ET/8:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 32
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Daniil Medvedev, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat Pablo Llamas Ruiz at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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