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Read Article Nuno Borges vs. Mariano Navone prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Borges vs Navone predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Nuno Borges and Mariano Navone will lock horns in the round of 128 of the ATP Madrid Open event on Thursday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Mariano Navone as the most likely winner of the Borges vs. Navone match.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Borges vs. Navone prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Borges-Navone men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Navone a 58% chance of beating Borges at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Navone has a 57% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Borges (+2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 54% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Nuno Borges vs. Mariano Navone odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Borges | Navone |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +150 | -172 |
| First Set | +130 | -164 |
| Game Spread | +2.5 (-110) | -2.5 (-120) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-110) | u22.5 (-120) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Borges vs. Navone picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Borges | +150 |
| First Set | Navone | -120 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Nuno Borges to win.
Although Borges is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Borges vs. Navone updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Nuno Borges and Mariano Navone is scheduled to commence on Thursday at 7:00 AM ET.
- Who: Nuno Borges vs. Mariano Navone
- Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026
- Approx. Time: 7:00 AM ET/4:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Mariano Navone, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat Nuno Borges at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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