Meta reportedly wants to build its own prediction market app

Prediction markets may have reached another milestone.

According to a report from The New York Times, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small team to develop a standalone prediction market-style app internally known as "Arena."

The proposed product would reportedly allow users to forecast future outcomes using a points-based system rather than real-money wagering, though The New York Times reported that Meta has not ruled out incorporating real-money betting in the future.

If launched, Arena would join a rapidly growing category that already includes prediction market platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket and ADI Predictstreet.

Prediction markets are moving into the mainstream

Prediction markets were largely confined to niche financial and forecasting communities just a few years ago.

Today, they are becoming increasingly visible across sports, politics, entertainment and current events.

Kalshi and Polymarket have generated billions of dollars in trading volume, while FIFA recently named ADI Predictstreet its Official Prediction Market Partner for the 2026 World Cup.

At the same time, companies including Fanatics, Crypto.com and Trump Media have announced prediction market initiatives of their own.

Meta's reported interest suggests major technology companies are now paying attention as the category continues to grow.

What would Meta's prediction market app look like?

According to The New York Times, Arena is being developed as a standalone application separate from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger.

The report indicates the product would likely focus on free-to-play predictions using points rather than real-money trading.

That approach would resemble Meta's earlier Forecast project, a crowdsourced prediction platform launched during the COVID-19 pandemic before being shut down in 2022.

However, prediction markets have changed dramatically since then.

What was once a niche category has become one of the fastest-growing segments of online engagement, particularly around major sporting events.

Why bettors should pay attention

For bettors, the significance is less about whether Meta successfully launches Arena and more about what the move says about the broader market.

Adam Fiske, CEO of Cipher Sports Technology Group, parent company of Dimers, says the reported project highlights how quickly prediction markets have entered the mainstream conversation.

"Five years ago, prediction markets were largely a niche product. Today, some of the biggest companies in technology, media and gaming are exploring the space," Fiske said.

"Whether Arena ultimately launches or not, the fact that Meta is reportedly experimenting with the category is a sign that prediction markets are becoming a much bigger part of how people engage with information, entertainment and live events.

"For consumers, that likely means more products, more competition and more innovation. It also means understanding how these platforms work will become increasingly important."

The bigger question

The most interesting part of The New York Times report may not be Arena itself.

It's what it suggests about the future of prediction markets.

When companies with billions of users begin exploring a category, it is often a sign that behavior is shifting from niche adoption toward mainstream acceptance.

Whether through trading, free-to-play predictions, fantasy-style competitions or fan engagement experiences, prediction markets appear to be moving well beyond their original audience.

And if Meta follows through on its plans, the next major competitor to Kalshi and Polymarket may not come from the gambling industry at all.