Could Kalshi become bigger than DraftKings?

Kalshi could generate close to $17 billion in annual revenue and more than $7 billion in EBITDA by 2030, according to projections from Macquarie.

The investment bank's bullish forecast assumes Kalshi retains a 35% share of a market that could grow to nearly $1.5 trillion in annual taker volume by the end of the decade.

If those projections prove accurate, Kalshi would generate significantly more revenue than some of the biggest established names in US sports betting, including DraftKings.

"Five years ago, projections like these would have sounded unrealistic," said Adam Fiske, CEO of Cipher Sports Technology Group, parent company of Dimers. "Today, major Wall Street analysts are publishing them. Whether Kalshi ultimately reaches these figures or not, it highlights just how seriously prediction markets are now being taken."

How Macquarie values Kalshi's growth potential

Macquarie's estimates are based on taker volume rather than the headline notional volume commonly reported by prediction market platforms.

Every prediction market transaction involves a maker supplying liquidity and a taker accepting it. Headline volume counts both sides of the transaction, while Kalshi generates most of its revenue from fees paid by takers.

Using that measure, Macquarie estimates Kalshi's taker volume could increase from approximately $92.7 billion this year to $520 billion by 2030.

Marketwide taker volume is projected to grow from around $169 billion to $1.49 trillion over the same period.

Kalshi revenue could approach $17 billion

Macquarie estimates that Kalshi currently holds approximately 55% of the prediction market but expects its share to fall to 35% by 2030 as competition intensifies.

Despite that decline, an assumed take rate of 3.35% would see Kalshi's annual revenue rise from just over $3 billion to approximately $16.9 billion by the end of the decade.

The analysts also expect Kalshi's EBITDA margin to improve from negative 9% to positive 43%, producing approximately $7.23 billion in annual EBITDA by 2030.

Could Kalshi become bigger than DraftKings?

Macquarie's forecast would place Kalshi comfortably ahead of current financial estimates for DraftKings.

For comparison, Bank of America's midpoint projections have DraftKings generating approximately $6.49 billion in revenue and $621 million in EBITDA in 2026.

The forecasts cover different years and should not be treated as a direct like-for-like comparison. However, they illustrate the scale Macquarie believes Kalshi could achieve if prediction markets continue to grow rapidly.

Kalshi has reportedly been attracting investor interest at a potential valuation of around $40 billion. Macquarie's estimates suggest even that figure could eventually be eclipsed if the company maintains its liquidity advantage and establishes itself as the leading infrastructure provider in the prediction market industry.

Kalshi could become less sports-dependent

Sports represented an estimated 88% of Kalshi's trading volume in 2025, but Macquarie expects that contribution to fall to 47% by 2030.

That would not mean a decline in sports trading. Macquarie projects sports taker volume to reach almost $247 billion, while non-sports volume grows even faster to approximately $274 billion.

Markets covering politics, economics, financial markets and weather could therefore account for a majority of Kalshi's activity by the end of the decade.

"We expect the business to become increasingly diversified," Macquarie said. "We believe prediction markets are evolving into a new asset class at the intersection of exchanges, sports betting and retail trading."

California and Texas are driving Kalshi volume

There are several significant risks attached to Macquarie's forecast, including where Kalshi is currently generating much of its activity.

The analysts believe a majority of Kalshi's existing volume is being driven by the approximately 40% of the US population without access to legal online sports betting.

A separate report from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming estimated that California and Texas account for 44% of Kalshi's volume, while states without legal online sports betting collectively contribute 69%.

"The key question that remains unanswered is how durable this demand will be if and when major states such as Texas and California legalize OSB," Macquarie said.

Regulatory advantages may not last

Prediction markets currently operate under a different regulatory and taxation framework from state-licensed sportsbooks, generally providing platforms with a lower tax burden.

Macquarie does not expect that advantage to continue indefinitely, with governments potentially seeking a greater share of prediction market revenue through taxes, licensing fees or revenue-sharing requirements.

"We do not think today's regulatory framework will persist indefinitely," the analysts warned.

Even after accounting for declining market share, higher taxation and growing competition, Macquarie believes Kalshi could develop into a business of extraordinary scale.

Whether it ultimately becomes bigger than DraftKings will depend on its ability to maintain liquidity, diversify beyond sports and navigate an uncertain regulatory environment. But the projections demonstrate why prediction markets are increasingly being viewed as a potential new asset class rather than simply an alternative way to bet on sports.