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NBA player props today: Thursday's best props include James Harden [12/11/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get NBA player props today with projections for Thursday's games.
Dimers' NBA props are live for December 11, 2025, with today's top betting edges led by the likes of James Harden, Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen.
Our NBA player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Clippers vs. Rockets and Celtics vs. Bucks, to surface the best NBA player prop bets across the market.
List of NBA prop bets for Thursday, 12/11
Sourced from 20+ total props today, below are the top ten NBA player props for December 11, ranked by edge.
James Harden over 1.5 steals (+194)
- Edge: 13.0%
- Probability: 47.0%
- Projection: 1.3
- Game: Clippers vs. Rockets (8:00PM ET)
Our model has found value on LA Clippers' James Harden over 1.5 steals. A probability of 47.0% gives this play an edge of 13.0% at +194 odds.
Jeremiah Fears over 1.5 steals (+162)
- Edge: 12.9%
- Probability: 51.1%
- Projection: 1.6
- Game: Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans (8:00PM ET)
Jeremiah Fears’s steals prop shows a 12.9% edge at +162 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.6 steals on the over 1.5 line.
Derik Queen over 1.5 blocks (+178)
- Edge: 12.6%
- Probability: 48.5%
- Projection: 1.3
- Game: Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans (8:00PM ET)
The data highlights value on Derik Queen over 1.5 blocks, with simulations showing a 48.5% probability and a 12.6% edge at +178.
Jose Alvarado over 1.5 steals (+162)
- Edge: 11.8%
- Probability: 49.9%
- Projection: 1.5
- Game: Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans (8:00PM ET)
Our model projects Jose Alvarado to put up 1.5 steals today, creating an edge of 11.8% on the over 1.5 line at +162 odds.
Keegan Murray over 1.5 blocks (+162)
- Edge: 11.0%
- Probability: 49.2%
- Projection: 1.4
- Game: Nuggets vs. Kings (10:00PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Keegan Murray over 1.5 blocks for Sacramento, showing an edge of 11.0% at +162 odds.
Toumani Camara over 1.5 steals (+170)
- Edge: 10.9%
- Probability: 47.9%
- Projection: 1.4
- Game: Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans (8:00PM ET)
Toumani Camara’s steals prop shows an edge of 10.9% at +170 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.4 today.
Nikola Jokic over 1.5 steals (+138)
- Edge: 10.8%
- Probability: 52.8%
- Projection: 1.7
- Game: Nuggets vs. Kings (10:00PM ET)
Our model projects Nikola Jokic for 1.7 steals for Denver, creating an edge of 10.8% on over 1.5 at +138 odds.
Shaedon Sharpe over 1.5 steals (+175)
- Edge: 9.5%
- Probability: 45.9%
- Projection: 1.2
- Game: Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans (8:00PM ET)
Our expert modelling projects Shaedon Sharpe for 1.2 steals, creating value on the over 1.5 line at +175 odds and a 9.5% edge.
Alperen Sengun over 1.5 steals (+162)
- Edge: 9.3%
- Probability: 47.4%
- Projection: 1.3
- Game: Clippers vs. Rockets (8:00PM ET)
A 9.3% edge on the over 1.5 steals line makes Alperen Sengun a value play in Clippers vs. Rockets, with our model projecting him for 1.3 steals at +162 odds.
Cameron Johnson over 2.5 3-pointers made (+131)
- Edge: 8.3%
- Probability: 51.6%
- Projection: 2.6
- Game: Nuggets vs. Kings (10:00PM ET)
Simulations project Cameron Johnson for 2.6 3-pointers made here, creating a 8.3% edge on the over 2.5 line at +131 odds.
NBA player prop summary: Thursday, December 11, 2025
A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 8:32AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clippers vs. Rockets | James Harden over 1.5 steals | +194 @ FanDuel | 13.0% | 47.0% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans | Jeremiah Fears over 1.5 steals | +162 @ FanDuel | 12.9% | 51.1% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans | Derik Queen over 1.5 blocks | +178 @ FanDuel | 11.8% | 49.9% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans | Jose Alvarado over 1.5 steals | +162 @ FanDuel | 11.8% | 49.9% |
| Nuggets vs. Kings | Keegan Murray over 1.5 blocks | +162 @ FanDuel | 11.0% | 49.2% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans | Toumani Camara over 1.5 steals | +170 @ DraftKings | 10.9% | 47.9% |
| Nuggets vs. Kings | Nikola Jokic over 1.5 steals | +138 @ FanDuel | 10.8% | 52.8% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans | Shaedon Sharpe over 1.5 steals | +175 @ DraftKings | 9.5% | 45.9% |
| Clippers vs. Rockets | Alperen Sengun over 1.5 steals | +162 @ FanDuel | 9.3% | 47.4% |
| Nuggets vs. Kings | Cameron Johnson over 2.5 3-pointers made | +131 @ DraftKings | 8.3% | 51.6% |
Conclusion
For December 11, 2025, our NBA prop bets feature players such as James Harden, Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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