NBA player props today: Sunday's best props include Royce O'Neale [1/4/2026]

Royce O'Neale over 2.5 3-pointers made (+148)

• Edge: 12.0%
• Probability: 52.3%
• Projection: 2.7
• Game: Thunder vs. Suns (8:00PM ET)

Our model has found value on Phoenix' Royce O'Neale over 2.5 3-pointers made. A probability of 52.3% gives this play an edge of 12.0% at +148 odds.

Donte DiVincenzo over 1.5 steals (+162)

• Edge: 11.3%
• Probability: 49.5%
• Projection: 1.5
• Game: Timberwolves vs. Wizards (6:00PM ET)

Donte DiVincenzo’s steals prop shows an 11.3% edge at +162 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.5 steals on the over 1.5 line.

Egor Demin over 2.5 3-pointers made (+139)

• Edge: 10.5%
• Probability: 52.4%
• Projection: 2.7
• Game: Nuggets vs. Nets (3:30PM ET)

The data highlights value on Egor Demin over 2.5 3-pointers made, with simulations showing a 52.4% probability and a 10.5% edge at +139.

Julius Randle over 1.5 steals (+178)

• Edge: 10.2%
• Probability: 46.2%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Timberwolves vs. Wizards (6:00PM ET)

Our model projects Julius Randle to record 1.2 steals today, creating an edge of 10.2% on the over 1.5 line at +178 odds.

LeBron James over 6.5 assists (+118)

• Edge: 7.1%
• Probability: 53.0%
• Projection: 7.0
• Game: Grizzlies vs. Lakers (9:30PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on LeBron James over 6.5 assists for LA Lakers, showing an edge of 7.1% at +118 odds.

Marcus Smart over 10.5 points scored (+100)

• Edge: 6.5%
• Probability: 56.5%
• Projection: 13.6
• Game: Grizzlies vs. Lakers (9:30PM ET)

Marcus Smart’s points scored prop shows an edge of 6.5% at +100 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 13.6 today.

Anthony Edwards over 4.5 assists (+122)

• Edge: 6.4%
• Probability: 51.5%
• Projection: 4.8
• Game: Timberwolves vs. Wizards (6:00PM ET)

Our model projects Anthony Edwards for 4.8 assists for Minnesota, creating an edge of 6.4% on over 4.5 at +122 odds.

Collin Gillespie over 4.5 rebounds (+134)

• Edge: 5.9%
• Probability: 48.7%
• Projection: 4.2
• Game: Thunder vs. Suns (8:00PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects Collin Gillespie for 4.2 rebounds, creating value on the over 4.5 line at +134 odds and a 5.9% edge.

Jaden McDaniels over 4.5 rebounds (+114)

• Edge: 5.7%
• Probability: 52.4%
• Projection: 4.9
• Game: Timberwolves vs. Wizards (6:00PM ET)

A 5.7% edge on the over 4.5 rebounds line makes Jaden McDaniels a value play in Timberwolves vs. Wizards, with our model projecting him for 4.9 rebounds at +114 odds.

Anthony Black over 1.5 steals (+138)

• Edge: 5.5%
• Probability: 47.5%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Pacers vs. Magic (3:00PM ET)

Simulations project Anthony Black for 1.3 steals here, creating a 5.5% edge on the over 1.5 line at +138 odds.

NBA player prop summary: Sunday, January 4, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 12:50AM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Thunder vs. Suns	Royce O'Neale over 2.5 3-pointers made	+148 @ FanDuel	12.0%	52.3%
Timberwolves vs. Wizards	Donte DiVincenzo over 1.5 steals	+162 @ FanDuel	11.3%	49.5%
Nuggets vs. Nets	Egor Demin over 2.5 3-pointers made	+139 @ DraftKings	10.2%	46.2%
Timberwolves vs. Wizards	Julius Randle over 1.5 steals	+178 @ FanDuel	10.2%	46.2%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers	LeBron James over 6.5 assists	+118 @ FanDuel	7.1%	53.0%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers	Marcus Smart over 10.5 points scored	+100 @ DraftKings	6.5%	56.5%
Timberwolves vs. Wizards	Anthony Edwards over 4.5 assists	+122 @ FanDuel	6.4%	51.5%
Thunder vs. Suns	Collin Gillespie over 4.5 rebounds	+134 @ FanDuel	5.9%	48.7%
Timberwolves vs. Wizards	Jaden McDaniels over 4.5 rebounds	+114 @ FanDuel	5.7%	52.4%
Pacers vs. Magic	Anthony Black over 1.5 steals	+138 @ FanDuel	5.5%	47.5%

Conclusion

For January 4, 2026, our NBA prop bets feature players such as Royce O'Neale, Donte DiVincenzo and Egor Demin. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.