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Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Thursday, April 23, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/23.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, April 23, 2026—are live with the Nuggets' Nikola Jokic projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Jokic, Jalen Brunson and Donovan Mitchell lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (April 23, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.5% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 14.4% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.1% |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 13.5% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.1% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 12.6% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 12.4% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 12.1% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 11.8% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 11.4% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 11.4% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 11.2% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 11.1% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 10.9% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 10.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 23, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 2.6% | +900 | 12.6% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 1.9% | +1100 | 10.3% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 1.4% | +900 | 11.4% |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 1.0% | +700 | 13.5% |
| Christian Braun | Nuggets | 0.7% | +1100 | 9.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/23.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onThursday, April 23, 2026, Nikola Jokic, Jalen Brunson and Donovan Mitchell lead our first basket projections, while RJ Barrett shapes as the strongest value play at +900. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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