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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, December 28, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/28.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, December 28, 2025—are live with the Trail Blazers' Shaedon Sharpe projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Sharpe, Stephen Curry and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 28, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 16.8% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 16.2% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.0% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.6% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 14.5% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.4% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 14.0% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.7% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 12.5% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 12.4% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 12.4% |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | 12.1% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 11.9% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 11.8% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 11.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 28, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 4.3% | +700 | 16.8% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 2.0% | +850 | 12.5% |
| Precious Achiuwa | Kings | 1.6% | +1200 | 9.3% |
| Santi Aldama | Grizzlies | 1.3% | +1000 | 10.4% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 1.2% | +700 | 13.7% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 1.2% | +1000 | 10.3% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | Raptors | 0.9% | +1200 | 8.6% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 0.7% | +800 | 11.8% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 0.7% | +850 | 11.2% |
| Derrick White | Celtics | 0.6% | +850 | 11.1% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 0.6% | +750 | 12.4% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 0.2% | +800 | 11.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/28.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, December 28, 2025, Shaedon Sharpe, Stephen Curry and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead our first basket projections, with Sharpe shaping as the strongest value play at +700. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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