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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Sunday, April 26, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/26.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, April 26, 2026—are live with the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Wembanyama, Jaylen Brown and Tyrese Maxey lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (April 26, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 17.6% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.5% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 14.3% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.4% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 13.4% |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | 13.2% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.0% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12.7% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 12.3% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 12.2% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 11.7% |
| Scoot Henderson | Trail Blazers | 11.1% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 11.1% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 10.9% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 10.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 26, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 2.5% | +1100 | 10.9% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 2.0% | +1000 | 11.1% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 1.7% | +850 | 12.3% |
| Jakob Poeltl | Raptors | 1.2% | +1000 | 10.3% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 1.0% | +650 | 14.3% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 1.0% | +750 | 12.7% |
| Sam Hauser | Celtics | 0.7% | +1300 | 7.8% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 0.0% | +900 | 10.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/26.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onSunday, April 26, 2026, Victor Wembanyama, Jaylen Brown and Tyrese Maxey lead our first basket projections, while Amen Thompson shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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