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Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Saturday, April 25, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/25.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, April 25, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections derive insights from key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Brunson and Jalen Green lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (April 25, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.3% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 14.9% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 14.4% |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 13.8% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 13.5% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 13.3% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 12.9% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 12.6% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 12.3% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 12.1% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 11.9% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 11.7% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 11.6% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 11.6% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 11.2% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 25, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Green | Suns | 1.9% | +700 | 14.4% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 1.7% | +900 | 11.7% |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 1.3% | +700 | 13.8% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 1.3% | +1200 | 9.0% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 1.2% | +750 | 12.9% |
| Christian Braun | Nuggets | 0.5% | +1300 | 7.7% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 0.5% | +850 | 11.0% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 0.4% | +850 | 10.9% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 0.3% | +950 | 9.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/25.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onSaturday, April 25, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Brunson and Jalen Green lead our first basket projections, with Green shaping as the strongest value play at +700. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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