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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, February 21, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/21.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, February 21, 2026—are live with the Pelicans' Zion Williamson projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Williamson, Tyrese Maxey and Dillon Brooks lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 21, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 14.6% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 14.5% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 14.2% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 14.2% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 14.1% |
| Anfernee Simons | Bulls | 13.4% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 13.3% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 13.1% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 12.8% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 12.5% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.5% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 12.3% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 11.7% |
| Saddiq Bey | Pelicans | 11.7% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 11.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 21, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 2.8% | +850 | 13.3% |
| Tari Eason | Rockets | 1.2% | +1200 | 8.9% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 0.9% | +650 | 14.2% |
| Anfernee Simons | Bulls | 0.9% | +700 | 13.4% |
| Anthony Black | Magic | 0.4% | +800 | 11.5% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 0.4% | +900 | 10.4% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 0.3% | +700 | 12.8% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 0.3% | +850 | 10.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/21.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, February 21, 2026, Zion Williamson, Tyrese Maxey and Dillon Brooks lead our first basket projections, while Desmond Bane shapes as the strongest value play at +850. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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