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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, January 10, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/10.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, January 10, 2026—are live with the Pacers' Pascal Siakam projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Siakam, Jaylen Brown and Kawhi Leonard lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 10, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 15.4% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 15.4% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.3% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 14.0% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.7% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 13.6% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 12.6% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 12.5% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 12.4% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 11.9% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 11.2% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 11.1% |
| Jaden Ivey | Pistons | 11.0% |
| Ausar Thompson | Pistons | 11.0% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 11.0% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 10, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | Heat | 2.2% | +750 | 14.0% |
| John Collins | Clippers | 1.8% | +1000 | 10.9% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 1.0% | +900 | 11.0% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 0.7% | +750 | 12.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/10.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, January 10, 2026, Pascal Siakam, Jaylen Brown and Kawhi Leonard lead our first basket projections, while Norman Powell shapes as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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