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Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Monday, April 27, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/27.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, April 27, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Green and Nikola Jokic lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (April 27, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.1% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 14.2% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 13.6% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 13.0% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 12.9% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 12.3% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 12.3% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 12.0% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 12.0% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 11.9% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 11.6% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 11.4% |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | 11.4% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 10.5% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 10.5% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 27, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Green | Suns | 3.0% | +800 | 14.1% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 2.6% | +1500 | 8.8% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 1.5% | +850 | 12.1% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 0.7% | +950 | 10.3% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 0.6% | +750 | 12.3% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 0.4% | +700 | 12.9% |
| Ausar Thompson | Pistons | 0.4% | +1200 | 8.1% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/27.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onMonday, April 27, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Green and Nikola Jokic lead our first basket projections, with Green shaping as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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