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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, February 23, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/23.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, February 23, 2026—are live with the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Wembanyama, Jaylen Wells and Jalen Duren lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 23, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 14.9% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 14.5% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 13.9% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.4% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 12.9% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 12.3% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 11.5% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 10.8% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 10.6% |
| Kyle Filipowski | Jazz | 10.5% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 10.4% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 10.2% |
| Keegan Murray | Kings | 9.6% |
| Precious Achiuwa | Kings | 9.2% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 9.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 23, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 2.0% | +700 | 14.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/23.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, February 23, 2026, Victor Wembanyama, Jaylen Wells and Jalen Duren lead our first basket projections, with Wells shaping as the strongest value play at +700. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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