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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, February 23, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/23.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, February 23, 2026—are live with the Grizzlies' Ty Jerome projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Jerome, Victor Wembanyama and Jalen Duren lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 23, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 15.6% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 14.9% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 13.9% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.4% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 13.0% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 12.9% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 12.3% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 11.5% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 10.8% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 10.6% |
| Kyle Filipowski | Jazz | 10.5% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 10.4% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 10.2% |
| Keegan Murray | Kings | 9.6% |
| Precious Achiuwa | Kings | 9.2% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 23, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 0.5% | +700 | 13.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/23.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, February 23, 2026, Ty Jerome, Victor Wembanyama and Jalen Duren lead our first basket projections, while Jaylen Wells shapes as the strongest value play at +700. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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