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Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, February 9, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/9.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, February 9, 2026—are live with the 76ers' Joel Embiid projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Embiid, Nikola Jokic and Donovan Mitchell lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 15.8% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 15.1% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.6% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.4% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 14.1% |
| Anfernee Simons | Bulls | 13.4% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.2% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 13.2% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 13.2% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 13.1% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 12.7% |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 12.7% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 12.7% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 12.6% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 12.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 3.2% | +950 | 12.7% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 3.2% | +950 | 12.7% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 2.6% | +900 | 12.6% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 2.3% | +1000 | 11.4% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 1.4% | +750 | 13.2% |
| Myles Turner | Bucks | 1.1% | +900 | 11.1% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 0.7% | +700 | 13.2% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 0.7% | +750 | 12.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/9.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, February 9, 2026, Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic and Donovan Mitchell lead our first basket projections, while CJ McCollum shapes as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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