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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, January 30, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/30.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, January 30, 2026—are live with the Lakers' Luka Doncic projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Doncic, Alex Sarr and Donovan Mitchell lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 30, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 16.4% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 15.2% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 15.1% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 14.8% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 14.5% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 14.5% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 14.4% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.9% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 13.6% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 13.4% |
| Payton Pritchard | Celtics | 13.2% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 13.1% |
| Kyshawn George | Wizards | 13.1% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.0% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 13.0% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 30, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyshawn George | Wizards | 3.6% | +950 | 13.1% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 3.3% | +800 | 14.4% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 2.7% | +950 | 12.3% |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cavaliers | 2.7% | +1000 | 11.8% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 2.7% | +700 | 15.2% |
| Dennis Schroder | Kings | 2.1% | +950 | 11.6% |
| Moses Moody | Warriors | 1.8% | +1000 | 10.9% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 1.7% | +750 | 13.4% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 1.5% | +650 | 14.9% |
| Sam Hauser | Celtics | 1.3% | +800 | 12.4% |
| Grayson Allen | Suns | 0.5% | +800 | 11.6% |
| Jalen Suggs | Magic | 0.4% | +800 | 11.6% |
| Peyton Watson | Nuggets | 0.0% | +850 | 10.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/30.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, January 30, 2026, Luka Doncic, Alex Sarr and Donovan Mitchell lead our first basket projections, while Kyshawn George shapes as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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