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'Monday Night Football' Player Prop Projections: Our Best Week 13 Computer Picks
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Jason Bevilacqua
Tonight’s Monday Night Football bets feature a specific player prop pick that the data suggests is being undervalued.
Tonight’s Monday Night Football bets feature a specific player prop pick that the data suggests is being undervalued. We aren't looking for a miracle performance; we are just looking for one solid play.
The New England Patriots are marching toward the playoffs, while the New York Giants are looking to play spoiler. But for savvy prop bettors, the scoreboard isn't the only place to find value tonight, and our NFL player projections hub is just the tool for the job.
NFL Week 13: Giants vs. Patriots player prop projections
Before we get into the Monday Night Football prop bet, here is how the topline market is shaping up for tonight's clash. The models are showing a tight and efficient lines, suggesting the value truly lies in the player props tonight.
Predicted Score: Patriots 27, Giants 20.
While the spread and total are essentially coin flips according to the data (50% probability each), the Moneyline win probability for New England is high (74%), aligning with their status as heavy favorites.
Monday Night Football player prop pick
Austin Hooper: Over 9.5 receiving yards
In a market often obsessed with star receivers and touchdowns, the smart money for tonight's NFL prop bets is on the Patriots' TE2, Austin Hooper, to clear a remarkably low bar and cash this player prop.
The Tale of the Tape
- The Line: 9.5 Yards
- The Projection: 16.1 Yards
- Probability: 55.9%
- Edge: 2.6%
- Best Odds: -114 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Why we like this prop
1. The "One Catch" Factor: Austin Hooper is currently averaging 13.3 yards per reception this season. The math here is simple: he doesn't need a high volume of targets to cash this ticket. A single catch at his season average comfortably clears the 9.5-yard hurdle.
2. The Injury Variable: Starting tight end Hunter Henry is dealing with a toe injury. While Henry is expected to play, he has been limited in practice. This increases the likelihood of the Patriots running more two tight end sets, or Hooper seeing relief snaps to keep Henry fresh.
3. The Model Loves It: Our data projects Hooper to finish with roughly 16.1 receiving yards. That is a nearly 70% cushion over the NFL sports betting sites' line of 9.5. When the projection is nearly double the line, you have a classic "buy low" opportunity for your NFL player prop picks.
Final Verdict: Take the value
Tonight's game script favors the Patriots controlling the clock, which could limit passing volume late in the game. However, Austin Hooper only needs one moment to deliver. Take the Over 9.5 receiving yards and watch for that one play-action pass to seal the deal.
Good luck with your Week 13 Monday Night Football bets!
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Jason Bevilacqua through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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