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Matteo Arnaldi vs. Rafael Jodar prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Arnaldi vs Jodar predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Matteo Arnaldi will face Rafael Jodar in the round of 32 at the ATP Rome event on Sunday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Rafael Jodar as the most likely winner of the Arnaldi vs. Jodar match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.
Arnaldi vs. Jodar prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's Arnaldi-Jodar men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Jodar a 76% chance of defeating Arnaldi at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Jodar has a 71% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Arnaldi (+4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 21.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Rafael Jodar odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Arnaldi | Jodar |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +275 | -311 |
| First Set | +220 | -278 |
| Game Spread | +4.5 (-136) | -4.5 (+102) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-110) | u21.5 (-116) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Arnaldi vs. Jodar picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jodar | -311 |
| First Set | Jodar | -116 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Rafael Jodar to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Arnaldi vs. Jodar updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Matteo Arnaldi and Rafael Jodar is scheduled to begin on Sunday at 2:30 PM ET.
- Who: Matteo Arnaldi vs. Rafael Jodar
- Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
- Approx. Time: 2:30 PM ET/11:30AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 32
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Rafael Jodar, with a 76% win probability, will likely beat Matteo Arnaldi at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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