Lorenzo Sonego vs. Andrey Rublev prediction, odds, picks for ATP Barcelona Open 2026

Lorenzo Sonego will square off with Andrey Rublev in the round of 16 at the ATP Barcelona event on Thursday.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Andrey Rublev as the most likely winner of the Sonego vs. Rublev match.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.

Sonego vs. Rublev prediction: Who will win and advance to the quarterfinals?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Sonego-Rublev men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Rublev a 77% chance of beating Sonego at the ATP Barcelona Open tournament.

Additionally, Rublev has a 72% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Sonego (+4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 59% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Lorenzo Sonego vs. Andrey Rublev odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sonego vs. Rublev picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: