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Laura Siegemund vs. Jasmine Paolini prediction, odds, picks for WTA Madrid Open 2026
Get Siegemund vs Paolini predictions for WTA Madrid Open.

Laura Siegemund will face Jasmine Paolini in the round of 64 at the WTA Madrid event on Thursday.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Jasmine Paolini as the most likely winner of the Siegemund vs. Paolini match.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Siegemund vs. Paolini prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Siegemund-Paolini women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Paolini a 74% chance of beating Siegemund at the WTA Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Paolini has a 68% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the bookmakers have got it right with the -4.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the under 20.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Laura Siegemund vs. Jasmine Paolini odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Siegemund | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +260 | -315 |
| First Set | +200 | -250 |
| Game Spread | +4.5 (-110) | -4.5 (-122) |
| Total Games | o20.5 (-105) | u20.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Siegemund vs. Paolini picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Siegemund | +260 |
| First Set | Paolini | -105 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Laura Siegemund to win.
Although Siegemund is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Siegemund vs. Paolini updates and essential details
The WTA Madrid Open match between Laura Siegemund and Jasmine Paolini is scheduled to commence on Thursday at 7:20 AM ET.
- Who: Laura Siegemund vs. Jasmine Paolini
- Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026
- Approx. Time: 7:20 AM ET/4:20AM PT
- Tournament: WTA Madrid, Spain Women's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Jasmine Paolini, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat Laura Siegemund at the WTA Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
