Laura Siegemund vs. Jasmine Paolini prediction, odds, picks for WTA Madrid Open 2026

Laura Siegemund will square off with Jasmine Paolini in the round of 64 at the WTA Madrid event on Thursday.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Jasmine Paolini as the most likely winner of the Siegemund vs. Paolini match.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.

Siegemund vs. Paolini prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Siegemund-Paolini women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Paolini a 63% chance of defeating Siegemund at the WTA Madrid Open tournament.

Additionally, Paolini has a 60% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Siegemund (+4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 21.5 games has a 54% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Laura Siegemund vs. Jasmine Paolini odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Siegemund vs. Paolini picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 21.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Siegemund vs. Paolini updates and essential details

The WTA Madrid Open match between Laura Siegemund and Jasmine Paolini is scheduled to commence on Thursday at 8:55 AM ET.

• Who: Laura Siegemund vs. Jasmine Paolini
• Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026
• Approx. Time: 8:55 AM ET/5:55AM PT
• Tournament: WTA Madrid, Spain Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 64

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Jasmine Paolini, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat Laura Siegemund at the WTA Madrid Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.