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Adelaide Crows vs. Carlton Blues prediction: Why Crows are favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 5 matchup [4/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Adelaide Crows vs Carlton Blues predictions for AFL Thursday.
The Adelaide Crows will take on the Carlton Blues in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Adelaide Oval on Thursday, starting at 5:40 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven AFL model predicts the Crows as the most likely winner of the Blues vs. Crows game.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Crows vs. Blues prediction: Who will win Round 5 game?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's AFL matchup between the Blues and Crows, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Crows an 85% chance of beating the Blues.
According to our model, the Blues (+34.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 166.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Carlton vs. Adelaide odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Blues | Crows |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +450 | -714 |
| Line (Spread) | +34.5 (-115) | -34.5 (-115) |
| Total | o166.5 (-115) | u166.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Blues vs. Crows picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Blues +34.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Crows | -714 |
| Total | Under 166.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Blues +34.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Crows vs. Blues game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Australian rules football matchup between the Crows and Blues at Adelaide Oval is scheduled to start at 5:40 AM ET.
- Who: Carlton Blues vs. Adelaide Crows
- Date: Thursday, April 9, 2026
- Time: 5:40 AM ET/2:40AM PT
- Venue: Adelaide Oval
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Crows, with an 85% win probability, will likely beat the Blues in Thursday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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