...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [3/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Anaheim Ducks vs Toronto Maple Leafs predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Anaheim Ducks will lock horns in the NHL at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Maple Leafs a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Ducks.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Ducks vs. Maple Leafs matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL game between the Ducks and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Maple Leafs a 52% chance of defeating the Ducks.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 72% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 51% chance of staying under.
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Ducks | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+220) | +1.5 (-270) |
| Moneyline | -110 | -110 |
| Total | o6.5 (-120) | u6.5 (+105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Maple Leafs +1.5 | -270 |
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | -110 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | +105 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs player props
Who will score a goal in Ducks vs. Maple Leafs?
According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Ducks vs. Maple Leafs.
Our projections give Matthews a 47.6% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 9.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Anaheim Ducks
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier | 33.6% |
| Chris Kreider | 31.3% |
| Beckett Sennecke | 29.1% |
| Leo Carlsson | 28.3% |
| Ryan Poehling | 24.5% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 47.6% |
| William Nylander | 44.0% |
| John Tavares | 37.3% |
| Matthew Knies | 30.9% |
| Matias Maccelli | 24.0% |
First goal scorer predictions
Anaheim Ducks
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier | 6.5% |
| Chris Kreider | 5.8% |
| Beckett Sennecke | 5.2% |
| Leo Carlsson | 5.1% |
| Ryan Poehling | 4.2% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 9.9% |
| William Nylander | 8.8% |
| John Tavares | 7.2% |
| Matthew Knies | 5.7% |
| Matias Maccelli | 4.2% |
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Maple Leafs and Ducks at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Anaheim Ducks vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
- Date: Thursday, March 12, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Maple Leafs, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Ducks on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Ducks vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
Advertiser disclosure