Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Warriors vs. Timberwolves NBA game on January 26, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NBA
Warriors
83
108
Target Center
Timberwolves
Target Center
TEAM1234T
Warriors
20 18 19 26 83
Timberwolves
21 32 22 33 108
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Warriors
    <1%
  • Timberwolves
    >99%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Warriors
20 18 19 26 83
Timberwolves
21 32 22 33 108
Q4 00:44 Warriors misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:28 Warriors misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:50 Trayce Jackson-Davis makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:36 Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
Q4 3:36 Warriors misses two point jump shot
Q4 3:47 Buddy Hield blocks Rob Dillingham's two point driving layup
Q4 4:03 Warriors misses three point jump shot
Q4 4:33 Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
Q4 4:51 Warriors misses three point jump shot
Q4 5:14 Warriors makes three point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:22
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  2. Q4 00:22
    Warriors offensive rebound
  3. Q4 00:42
    Jaylen Clark defensive rebound
  4. Q4 00:44
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  5. Q4 1:03
    Timberwolves turnover (Trayce Jackson-Davis steals)
  6. Q4 1:26
    Timberwolves defensive rebound
  7. Q4 1:26
    Johnny Juzang misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  8. Q4 1:28
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  9. Q4 1:50
    +2
    Trayce Jackson-Davis makes two point jump shot
    81-105
  10. Q4 2:04
    Warriors personal foul (Johnny Juzang draws the foul)
  11. Q4 2:04
    +1
    Johnny Juzang makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    79-105
  12. Q4 2:09
    Johnny Juzang defensive rebound
  13. Q4 2:36
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    79-104
  14. Q4 2:50
    Timberwolves personal foul
  15. Q4 2:50
    +1
    Trayce Jackson-Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    79-102
  16. Q4 3:00
    Timberwolves turnover
  17. Q4 3:34
    Rob Dillingham defensive rebound
  18. Q4 3:36
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  19. Q4 3:45
    Malevy Leons defensive rebound
  20. Q4 3:47
    Buddy Hield blocks Rob Dillingham's two point driving layup
  21. Q4 3:55
    +1
    Malevy Leons makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    75-100
  22. Q4 3:55
    +1
    Malevy Leons makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    76-100
  23. Q4 4:03
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  24. Q4 4:06
    Buddy Hield defensive rebound
  25. Q4 4:31
    Malevy Leons defensive rebound
  26. Q4 4:33
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  27. Q4 4:51
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  28. Q4 4:58
    Malevy Leons defensive rebound
  29. Q4 5:14
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    71-100
  30. Q4 5:14
    Timberwolves 60 second timeout
  31. Q4 5:31
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  32. Q4 5:46
    +3
    Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
    68-97
  33. Q4 6:24
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  34. Q4 6:24
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  35. Q4 6:24
    Timberwolves lineup change (Jaden McDaniels, Bones Hyland, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaylen Clark, Rudy Gobert)
  36. Q4 6:38
    Timberwolves turnover
  37. Q4 6:49
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  38. Q4 6:57
    Warriors turnover
  39. Q4 7:09
    Warriors turnover
  40. Q4 7:24
    +3
    Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
    66-94
  41. Q4 7:46
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  42. Q4 8:08
    Timberwolves personal foul
  43. Q4 8:08
    +1
    Trayce Jackson-Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    64-91
  44. Q4 8:12
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  45. Q4 8:35
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  46. Q4 8:47
    Timberwolves turnover
  47. Q4 8:55
    Warriors offensive rebound
  48. Q4 8:55
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  49. Q4 9:02
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  50. Q4 9:07
    Warriors personal foul
  51. Q4 9:07
    Warriors lineup change (Quinten Post, Buddy Hield, Malevy Leons, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
  52. Q4 9:16
    Donte DiVincenzo offensive rebound
  53. Q4 9:37
    +3
    Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
    63-89
  54. Q4 9:49
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    63-86
  55. Q4 10:05
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    61-85
  56. Q4 10:05
    Warriors personal foul
  57. Q4 10:18
    Timberwolves offensive rebound
  58. Q4 10:18
    Warriors personal foul
  59. Q4 10:26
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  60. Q4 10:34
    Timberwolves turnover
  61. Q4 10:47
    Timberwolves personal foul
  62. Q4 10:47
    Brandin Podziemski misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  63. Q4 11:05
    +1
    Brandin Podziemski makes regular free throw 1 of 3
    58-81
  64. Q4 11:05
    +1
    Brandin Podziemski makes regular free throw 2 of 3
    59-81
  65. Q4 11:30
    +3
    Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
    57-81
  66. Q4 11:35
    Warriors turnover
  67. Q4 12:00
    Warriors lineup change (Quinten Post, Buddy Hield, Malevy Leons, Gary Payton II, Brandin Podziemski)
  68. Q4 12:00
    Timberwolves lineup change (Bones Hyland, Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, Jaylen Clark, Rudy Gobert)
  69. Q3 00:05
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  70. Q3 00:18
    +1
    Bones Hyland makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    57-75
  71. Q3 00:32
    Naz Reid defensive rebound
  72. Q3 00:34
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  73. Q3 00:56
    +1
    Jaden McDaniels makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    57-72
  74. Q3 00:56
    +1
    Jaden McDaniels makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    57-73
  75. Q3 1:13
    Timberwolves turnover
  76. Q3 1:21
    Naz Reid defensive rebound
  77. Q3 1:38
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  78. Q3 1:40
    Joan Beringer offensive rebound
  79. Q3 2:14
    Moses Moody defensive rebound
  80. Q3 2:17
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  81. Q3 2:43
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    52-71
  82. Q3 2:59
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Quinten Post, Gary Payton II, Pat Spencer, Will Richard)
  83. Q3 3:17
    Pat Spencer defensive rebound
  84. Q3 3:18
    Joan Beringer misses two point jump shot
  85. Q3 3:26
    Bones Hyland defensive rebound
  86. Q3 3:28
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  87. Q3 4:00
    Warriors violation
  88. Q3 4:00
    Timberwolves lineup change (Jaden McDaniels, Bones Hyland, Joan Beringer, Naz Reid, Jaylen Clark)
  89. Q3 4:10
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  90. Q3 4:17
    Timberwolves personal foul
  91. Q3 4:17
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Buddy Hield, Pat Spencer, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Will Richard)
  92. Q3 4:48
    Warriors turnover
  93. Q3 4:48
    Timberwolves lineup change (Jaden McDaniels, Bones Hyland, Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, Rudy Gobert)
  94. Q3 5:02
    Bones Hyland defensive rebound
  95. Q3 5:06
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  96. Q3 5:39
    Jaden McDaniels turnover (bad pass)
  97. Q3 5:39
    Rudy Gobert offensive rebound
  98. Q3 5:39
    Rudy Gobert misses two point tip layup
  99. Q3 5:44
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    47-64
  100. Q3 6:06
    Buddy Hield misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  101. Q3 6:06
    Warriors offensive rebound
  102. Q3 6:25
    Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
  103. Q3 6:25
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    47-62
  104. Q3 6:51
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  105. Q3 6:51
    Timberwolves lineup change (Jaden McDaniels, Bones Hyland, Donte DiVincenzo, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert)
  106. Q3 7:10
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  107. Q3 7:15
    Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
  108. Q3 7:27
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  109. Q3 7:31
    Gui Santos offensive rebound
  110. Q3 7:39
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  111. Q3 7:46
    Quinten Post offensive rebound
  112. Q3 8:01
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  113. Q3 8:17
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    45-59
  114. Q3 8:33
    Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
  115. Q3 8:35
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  116. Q3 8:53
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    42-58
  117. Q3 8:59
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    42-56
  118. Q3 9:24
    +3
    Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
    40-56
  119. Q3 9:33
    Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
  120. Q3 9:51
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  121. Q3 9:59
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  122. Q3 10:09
    Warriors defensive rebound
  123. Q3 10:10
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  124. Q3 10:30
    Timberwolves personal foul
  125. Q3 10:36
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  126. Q3 10:57
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  127. Q3 11:10
    Julius Randle turnover (offensive foul)
  128. Q3 11:33
    Timberwolves turnover
  129. Q3 11:38
    Julius Randle defensive rebound
  130. Q2 00:00
    Julius Randle defensive rebound
  131. Q3 12:00
    Timberwolves lineup change (Jaden McDaniels, Donte DiVincenzo, Mike Conley, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert)
  132. Q2 00:39
    Rudy Gobert misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  133. Q2 00:39
    Timberwolves lineup change (Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Naz Reid, Jaylen Clark, Rudy Gobert)
  134. Q2 00:45
    Warriors turnover
  135. Q2 00:47
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    38-50
  136. Q2 00:51
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  137. Q2 1:03
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    38-48
  138. Q2 1:21
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    38-46
  139. Q2 1:26
    Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
  140. Q2 1:39
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Buddy Hield, Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Trayce Jackson-Davis)
  141. Q2 1:42
    Warriors turnover
  142. Q2 2:10
    Naz Reid defensive rebound
  143. Q2 2:13
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  144. Q2 2:21
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  145. Q2 2:40
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  146. Q2 2:54
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer, Brandin Podziemski, Trayce Jackson-Davis)
  147. Q2 2:54
    +1
    Jaden McDaniels makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    36-40
  148. Q2 2:54
    +1
    Jaden McDaniels makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    36-41
  149. Q2 3:00
    Donte DiVincenzo offensive rebound
  150. Q2 3:24
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  151. Q2 3:44
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  152. Q2 3:56
    Quinten Post defensive rebound
  153. Q2 4:42
    Timberwolves turnover
  154. Q2 4:42
    Warriors lineup change (Quinten Post, Buddy Hield, Gary Payton II, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
  155. Q2 4:50
    Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
  156. Q2 5:09
    Warriors personal foul
  157. Q2 5:09
    +1
    Julius Randle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    34-39
  158. Q2 5:31
    Gary Payton II turnover (offensive foul)
  159. Q2 5:31
    Timberwolves lineup change (Jaden McDaniels, Donte DiVincenzo, Mike Conley, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert)
  160. Q2 5:40
    +3
    Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
    34-37
  161. Q2 5:46
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  162. Q2 6:12
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    34-34
  163. Q2 6:50
    Timberwolves 60 second timeout
  164. Q2 6:50
    Timberwolves lineup change (Bones Hyland, Donte DiVincenzo, Mike Conley, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert)
  165. Q2 7:13
    Will Richard defensive rebound
  166. Q2 7:16
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  167. Q2 7:40
    Warriors lineup change (Quinten Post, Buddy Hield, Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard)
  168. Q2 7:44
    Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
  169. Q2 7:46
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  170. Q2 8:07
    Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
  171. Q2 8:32
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    28-30
  172. Q2 8:42
    Jump ball. (Rudy Gobert gains possession)
  173. Q2 9:01
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  174. Q2 10:00
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    26-25
  175. Q2 10:27
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  176. Q2 10:30
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  177. Q2 10:59
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    23-23
  178. Q2 11:04
    Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
  179. Q2 11:06
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  180. Q2 11:24
    Quinten Post defensive rebound
  181. Q1 00:00
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  182. Q1 00:00
    Warriors offensive rebound
  183. Q2 12:00
    Timberwolves lineup change (Bones Hyland, Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, Jaylen Clark, Rudy Gobert)
  184. Q1 00:03
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  185. Q1 00:07
    Warriors personal foul
  186. Q1 00:24
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  187. Q1 00:32
    Timberwolves personal foul
  188. Q1 1:22
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  189. Q1 1:46
    Timberwolves turnover
  190. Q1 1:47
    Bones Hyland defensive rebound
  191. Q1 2:34
    Julius Randle defensive rebound
  192. Q1 2:37
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  193. Q1 2:53
    Timberwolves turnover
  194. Q1 2:55
    Naz Reid defensive rebound
  195. Q1 3:13
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  196. Q1 3:30
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  197. Q1 3:30
    Timberwolves lineup change (Jaden McDaniels, Bones Hyland, Julius Randle, Naz Reid, Jaylen Clark)
  198. Q1 3:34
    Naz Reid defensive rebound
  199. Q1 3:37
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  200. Q1 3:53
    Will Richard defensive rebound
  201. Q1 3:55
    Warriors personal foul
  202. Q1 3:55
    Bones Hyland misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  203. Q1 3:55
    Bones Hyland misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  204. Q1 4:12
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    18-12
  205. Q1 4:38
    Warriors lineup change (Buddy Hield, Gary Payton II, Pat Spencer, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Will Richard)
  206. Q1 4:38
    Timberwolves lineup change (Bones Hyland, Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, Jaylen Clark, Rudy Gobert)
  207. Q1 4:38
    Timberwolves lineup change (Jaden McDaniels, Bones Hyland, Naz Reid, Jaylen Clark, Rudy Gobert)
  208. Q1 4:42
    Warriors turnover
  209. Q1 5:13
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  210. Q1 5:31
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    16-10
  211. Q1 5:48
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    16-8
  212. Q1 6:11
    Warriors defensive rebound
  213. Q1 6:11
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  214. Q1 6:16
    Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
  215. Q1 6:18
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  216. Q1 6:31
    Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
  217. Q1 6:34
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  218. Q1 6:53
    Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
  219. Q1 7:28
    Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
  220. Q1 7:30
    Julius Randle misses two point dunk
  221. Q1 7:45
    Gui Santos misses three point jump shot
  222. Q1 7:50
    Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
  223. Q1 8:27
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  224. Q1 8:27
    Warriors defensive rebound
  225. Q1 8:53
    Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
  226. Q1 8:56
    Mike Conley misses three point jump shot
  227. Q1 9:12
    Rudy Gobert blocks Pat Spencer's three point pullup jump shot
  228. Q1 9:36
    +3
    Julius Randle makes three point jump shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)
    3-8
  229. Q1 9:59
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  230. Q1 10:12
    Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
  231. Q1 10:25
    Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
  232. Q1 10:39
    Brandin Podziemski shooting foul (Rudy Gobert draws the foul)
  233. Q1 10:39
    +1
    Rudy Gobert makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    3-4
  234. Q1 10:52
    Rudy Gobert offensive rebound
  235. Q1 10:53
    +2
    Rudy Gobert makes two point putback dunk
    3-3
  236. Q1 10:58
    Julius Randle defensive rebound
  237. Q1 11:07
    Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
  238. Q1 11:22
    +3
    Pat Spencer makes three point jump shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)
    3-1
  239. Q1 11:47
    Rudy Gobert misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  240. Q1 11:47
    +1
    Rudy Gobert makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    0-1
  241. Q1 12:00
    Quinten Post vs. Rudy Gobert (Mike Conley gains possession)
  242. Q1 12:00
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Quinten Post, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer, Brandin Podziemski)
Box Score
Warriors
PosPlayerPts
Timberwolves
PosPlayerPts

Warriors vs. Timberwolves: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Warriors vs. Timberwolves
  • Date: Monday, January 26, 2026
  • Time: 9:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Target Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Timberwolves favored at -8
  • Total (Over/Under): 226.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Warriors +260, Timberwolves -295

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Warriors: 26%
  • Timberwolves: 74%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Warriors 109-116 Timberwolves.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Warriors a win probability of 26%, while the Timberwolves have a win probability of 74%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Timberwolves are more likely to beat the Warriors in the NBA game at Target Center on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.